高盛（Goldman Sachs）：2023年美国经济展望报告

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1、The key macroeconomi c questi on of the year has been whether i nflati onarynoverheati ng can be reversed wi thout a recessi on.Our analysi s suggests that theanswer i s yesan extended peri od of below-potenti al growth can graduallyreverse labor market overheati ng and bri ng down wage growth and u

2、lti matelyi nflati on,provi di ng a feasi ble i f challengi ng path to a soft landi ng.The i ni ti al steps along thi s path have been successful,but there i s much furthernto go i n 2023.We expect another year of below-potenti al growth and labormarket rebalanci ng to solve much but not all of the

3、underlyi ng i nflati on problem.Unli ke consensus,we do not expect a recessi on.The first step i n keepi ng the adj ustment process on track i s ensuri ng that GDPngrowth remai ns below potenti al.The fiscal ti ghteni ng that helped to slow theeconomy thi s year has mostly run i ts course,but the la

4、rge ti ghteni ng i n financi alcondi ti ons engi neered by the Fed should keep GDP growth near 1%i n 2023.Consumer spendi ng should grow a bi t more firmly as i ncome begi ns to ri seagai n,but thi s i s li kely to be offset by weakness elsewhere,especi ally i nhousi ng.The second step requi res sof

5、t GDP growth to further reduce labor demand.Sonfar,the speed and composi ti on of labor market rebalanci ng have beenencouragi ng.Our j obs-workers gap has shrunk substanti ally,dri ven by a decli nei n j ob openi ngs rather than employment.I n 2023,we expect a further largedecli ne i n j ob openi n

6、gs coupled wi th a pp ri se i n the unemployment rate toshri nk the j obs-workers gap from the hi stori cal peak of 5.9 mi lli on reached earli erthi s year to the 2 mi lli on threshold that we esti mate i s necessary to dampenlabor market overheati ng.The thi rd step requi res labor market rebalanc

7、i ng to slow wage growth.Wagengrowth has begun to moderate i n recent months,and we expect i t to fall to 4%by the end of 2023,not far above our 3.5%esti mate of the pace compati blewi th 2%i nflati on.I f so,thi s i ntermedi ate step would provi de cruci al earlysupport for the vi ew that overheati

8、 ng can be reversed wi thout a recessi on.The fourth step requi res softer wage growth to bri ng i nflati on back to target.Thi snshould get underway i n 2023 but wi ll take longer.We expect core PCE i nflati onto fall from roughly 5%to 3%by December 2023,dri ven largely by goodscategori es where su

9、pply chai n recovery i s now reversi ng pandemi c shortages.Jan Hatzi us+1(212)902-0394|j an.hatzi Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Al ec Phi l l i ps+1(202)637-3746|alec.phi lli Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Davi d Meri cl e+1(212)357-2619|davi d.meri Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Spencer Hi l l,CFA+1(212)357-7621|spencer.hi Go

10、ldman Sachs&Co.LLC Joseph Bri ggs+1(212)902-2163|j oseph.bri Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Ronni e Wal ker+1(917)343-4543|ronni Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Ti m Krupa+1(202)637-3771|ti Goldman Sachs&Co.LLC Manuel Abecasi s+1(212)902-8357|manuel.abecasi Goldman Sachs&Co.LLCUS Economics Analyst 2023 US Economi c Outl

11、 ook:Appr oachi ng a Soft Landi ng(Mer i cl e)18 November 2022|5:59PM ESTI nvestors should consi der thi s report as only a si ngle factor i n maki ng thei r i nvestment deci si on.For Reg AC certi ficati on and other i mportant di sclosures,see the Di sclosure Appendi x,or go to following is a reda

12、cted version of the original report published on 18 November 2022 20 pgs.Servi ces i nflati on i s li kely to fall meani ngfully i n the offici al data only wi th a longer lag,especi ally i n the largest categori es,shelter and health care.We expect the FOMC to slow the pace of rate hi kes as i t sh

13、i fts to fine-tuni ng thenfunds rate to keep growth below potenti al,but to ulti mately deli ver a bi t more thani s pri ced,wi th a 50bp hi ke i n December and three 25bp hi kes next year rai si ng thefunds rate to a peak of 5-5.25%.Our recessi on odds are below consensus eventhough our Fed forecas

14、t i s sli ghtly more hawki sh than consensus because weexpect demand to prove more resi li ent than expected next year.18 November 2022 2Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal yst2023 US Economi c Outl ook:Approachi ng a Sof t Landi ng A year ago,the i nflati on problem began to broaden beyond the i ni ti

15、 al pandemi c-dri ven di slocati ons and started to also i nclude an element of textbook overheati ng i n whi ch labor demand far exceeded labor supply and hi gh wage growth,hi gh i nflati on,and hi gh short-term i nflati on expectati ons rei nforced each other i n a feedback loop.Si nce then,the ke

16、y macroeconomi c questi on has been whether i nflati onary overheati ng can be reversed wi thout a recessi on.Earli er thi s year,we i ntroduced a step-by-step framework for analyzi ng thi s questi on,summari zed by the di agram i n Exhi bi t 1.1 Worki ng backwards,we first asked how much wage growt

17、h would need to decli ne to be compati ble wi th 2%i nflati on and concluded i t would have to fall from 5.5%to 3.5%.We then asked how much the i mbalance between labor demand and labor supply would need to shri nk to dampen wage pressures and concluded that the j obs-workers gap would have to fall

18、from 5.9 mi lli on,the wi dest gap i n hi story,to 2 mi lli on.Fi nally,we asked how weak aggregate demand would have to be to reduce labor demand enough to achi eve thi s rebalanci ng,assumi ng that labor supply rebounded only modestly,and concluded that an extended peri od of posi ti ve but below-

19、potenti al GDP growth could reduce labor demand by the amount requi red.The punchli ne was that there i s a plausi ble path to a soft landi ng,though cali brati ng poli cy j ust ri ght to stay on that path would surely be challengi ng.The i ni ti al steps along thi s path have been successful,but th

20、ere i s much further to go i n 2023.Growth slowed qui ckly to a soli dly below-potenti al pace thi s year,labor market rebalanci ng has gone very well so far,and recent months have finally brought si gns of moderati on i n wage growth and i nflati on.We expect another year of below-potenti al growth

21、 and further labor market rebalanci ng i n 2023 to solve much but not all of the underlyi ng i nflati on problem.Unli ke consensus,we do not expect a recessi on.1 These reports i nclude More Jobs than Workers:A New Measure of Labor Market Ti ghtness,What Wi ll I t Take to Restore Balance to the Labo

22、r Market?,Q&A on the Jobs-Workers Gap and the Ri sk of Recessi on,A Recessi on I s Not I nevi table,Prospects for a Soft Landi ng:What Could Make the Feds Job Easi er or Harder?,What Wage Growth Rate I s Compati ble Wi th 2%I nflati on?,Tami ng I nflati on Wi thout a Recessi on:A Progress Report,and

23、 The Expected Path to Sustai nable Wage Growth.18 November 2022 3Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ystAnot her Year of Below-Pot ent ial Growt h,Not a Recession The first step i n keepi ng the adj ustment process on track i s ensuri ng that GDP growth remai ns below potenti al.GDP growth i s on track

24、 to slow from 5.7%i n 2021(Q4/Q4)to j ust 0.2%i n 2022,meani ng that so far,poli cy ti ghteni ng has been very well cali brated to slow demand growth as much as possi ble wi thout acci dentally ti ppi ng the economy i nto a recessi onary spi ral,an underappreci ated success.I n 2023,we expect GDP gr

25、owth of about 1%,below potenti al but well above consensus expectati ons.A year ago,our below-consensus growth forecast for 2022 largely reflected the drag we expected from fiscal and monetary poli cy ti ghteni ng.Today,our above-consensus Exhibit 1:.We Expect Anot her Year of Below-Pot ent ial GDP

26、Growt h in 2023 t o Rebalance t he Labor Market and Slow Wage Growt h and Inflat ion,but Reaching t he 2%Target Will Take Longer 01234567890123456789The Slowdown Required to Rebalance the Labor Marketand Calm Wage Growth and InflationPercent change,year agoMillionsBelow-potentialGDP growth.lowers th

27、e jobs-workers gap.which slows downwage growth.Starting PointCurrentGDP Growth(left)Jobs-Workers Gap(right)Wage Growth(left)Core PCE Inflation(left).to bring downcore inflationEnd-2023,GS ForecastRequired,GS EstimateSour ce:Depar tment of Commer ce,Depar tment of Labor,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investm

28、ent Resear chExhibit 2:GDP Growt h Slowed Abrupt ly in 2022,and We Expect It t o Remain Below Pot ent ial in 2023-30369-30369Jan-2021Jul-2021Jan-2022Jul-2022US Real GDP Growth(left)GS Current Activity Indicator(right)GS Potential Growth EstimatePercent,quarterly annual ratePercent,monthly annual rat

29、eNote:GDP growth is plotted in central month of quarter.For CAI,a 3 month average is shown.0.90.81.01.31.30.31.10.6-0.1-0.10.60.10.20.1Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4202220232022,QoQ AR2023,QoQ ARQ4/Q4-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5Real GDP GrowthGS ForecastConsensusGS Potential Growth EstimatePercent chang

30、ePercent changeSour ce:Depar tment of Commer ce,Bl oomber g,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch18 November 2022 4Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ystforecast for 2023 i n part reflects the di mi ni shi ng i mpact of poli cy restrai nt.The large drag from the expi rati on of pandemi c fiscal

31、reli ef measures i s now mostly behi nd us,and our financi al condi ti ons i ndex(FCI)framework i mpli es that the i mpact of monetary poli cy ti ghteni ng i s peaki ng now and wi ll gradually fade i n 2023.Exhibit 3:Fiscal Policy Tight ening Is Most ly Behind Us,and t he Impact of t he Tight ening

32、in Financial Condit ions Engineered by t he Fed Is Likely Peaking Now Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4202120222023-8-6-4-202468-8-6-4-202468Impulse to Quarterly Annualized GDP Growth From Fiscal Policy and Financial Conditions,GS EstimatesFiscal ImpulseFinancial Conditions ImpulseTotalPercentage pointsPerce

33、ntage pointsSour ce:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear chAn i mportant consequence of the end of the fiscal ti ghteni ng i s that i ncome should start growi ng agai n.Real di sposable i ncome fell for a year as speci al transfer payments expi red and i nflati on outran wage growth.Wi th few tr

34、ansfers left to lose and i nflati on li kely to be more restrai ned i n 2023,we expect real i ncome to ri se 3.5%next year,although thi s partly reflects large gai ns from i nterest i ncome and tax rate normali zati on that wi ll accrue mostly to hi gh-i ncome households and have less i mpact on spe

35、ndi ng.Offsetti ng the turnaround i n i ncome,wealth effects on consumer spendi ng have shi fted from posi ti ve to negati ve as hi gher i nterest rates have brought down equi ty and home pri ces,the latter of whi ch li kely have further to fall.We expect these forces,along wi th other i nfluences i

36、 ncludi ng fadi ng boosts from the reopeni ng i mpulse and excess savi ngs,to net out to consumpti on growth of roughly 1.5%i n 2023.18 November 2022 5Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ystOther areas of the economy are li kely to be weaker,especi ally the i nterest rate-sensi ti ve housi ng sector,th

37、e busi ness structures component of capi tal spendi ng,and government spendi ng.Thi s should keep GDP growth near 1%i n 2023,a pace that i s li kely close to a speed li mi t for the Fed unti l a larger dent has been put i n the i nflati on problem,i n that accelerati on beyond thi s poi nt would li

38、kely be unwelcome and mi ght be met wi th further ti ghteni ng to ensure that supply and demand conti nue to rebalance qui ckly.Reversing Labor Market Overheat ing Wit hout a Spike in t he Unemployment Rat e Below-potenti al growth has already produced a rebalanci ng i n the labor market whose Exhib

39、it 4:We Expect Consumer Spending t o Grow 1.5%in 2023 as a Year of Falling Income Offset by Posit ive Wealt h Effect s Gives Way t o a Year of Rising Income Offset by Negat ive Wealt h Effect s-15-10-5051015202530-15-10-5051015202530JanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNov202120222023O

40、ther Income(Nominal)Government Transfer Payments(Nominal)InflationReal Disposable IncomePercent change vs.Dec.2020Percent change vs.Dec.2020Household Disposable Income-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.0Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4202120222023

41、2024CryptoReal EstateEquitiesPercentage pointsPercentage pointsContributions to Quarterly Annualized Real PCE Growth from Wealth Effects*Our estimates assume that the SP500 will stand at 4000 at end-2023 and that home prices will decline 12%from their peak.Sour ce:Depar tment of Commer ce,Gol dman S

42、achs Gl obal Investment Resear chExhibit 5:We Expect GDP t o Grow About 1%in 2023 as Weakness in Housing,Business St ruct ures,and Government Spending Offset s Somewhat Firmer Consumpt ion Growt h Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q420222023-8-6-4-20246-8-6-4-20246Contributions to GDP GrowthConsumptionNonres.Fixed Inve

43、stmentHousingInventoriesTradeGovernmentTotalPercent change,annual ratePercent change,annual rateGS Forecast2023 Q4/Q4Growth Rate*1.5%2.4%-8.4%0.0pp-0.2pp0.5%1.1%*Shows inventories and trades contributions to 2023 Q4/Q4 GDP growth.Sour ce:Depar tment of Commer ce,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Res

44、ear ch18 November 2022 6Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ystspeed and composi ti on have been very encouragi ng.Based on ti mely j ob openi ngs measures from Li nkUp and I ndeed,we esti mate that the j obs-workers gaptotal labor demand(employment plus j ob openi ngs)mi nus total labor supply(the si

45、ze of the labor force)has fallen from a peak of nearly 6 mi lli on to j ust over 4 mi lli on.All of the decli ne i n labor demand so far has come from a decli ne i n j ob openi ngsa drop that i s much larger than any i n US hi story seen outsi de a recessi onrather than i n employment.How has thi s

46、been possi ble?Di dnt a shi ft out i n the Beveri dge curve duri ng the pandemi c si gnal a breakdown i n the effici ency wi th whi ch workers matched to j obs,i mplyi ng that a large decli ne i n labor demand would unfortunately have to i nvolve a large i ncrease i n the unemployment rate?And would

47、nt thi s set i n moti on the usual recessi onary vi ci ous ci rcle where j ob loss leads to a sharp pullback i n spendi ng,leadi ng to more j ob loss?I n our vi ew,the Beveri dge curve debate last summer mi ssed several i mportant poi nts:what looked li ke a conventi onal shi ft out i n the curve si

48、 gnali ng a structural i ncrease i n mi smatch was more a matter of unemployed workers temporari ly not wanti ng or applyi ng for j obs because of elevated unemployment benefits and Covi d fears;standard measures of i ndustry mi smatch were low,not hi gh;and the rate at whi ch unemployed workers wer

49、e flowi ng i nto new j obs was hi gh,not low.These poi nts have made us confident that the labor market i s on a steep part of the Beveri dge curve where a reducti on i n labor demand di sproporti onately takes the form of a decli ne i n j ob openi ngs.Thi s favorable trend i s li kely to conti nue

50、for now.Job openi ngs are sti ll falli ng,and the layoff rate remai ns very low,despi te recent layoffs i n the technology sector.We expect a further large drop i n j ob openi ngs i n 2023 coupled wi th a more li mi ted pp ri se i n the unemployment rate to shri nk the j obs-workers gap to the 2 mi

51、lli on threshold that we esti mate would slow wage growth to a sustai nable rate.Our forecast i mpli es a trough to peak i ncrease i n the unemployment rate of 0.7pp,roughly one-thi rd the i ncrease seen i n even the shallowest US recessi ons.I n part for that reason and i n part because we expect a

52、cti vi ty growth to remai n posi ti ve,our forecast would probably not be classi fied as a recessi on.18 November 2022 7Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ystWage Growt h Slows Most of t he Way t o a Sust ainable Rat e Only recently has labor market rebalanci ng begun to yi eld clearer evi dence of a

53、moderati on i n wage growth.Average hourly earni ngs have decelerated meani ngfully and survey measures of current and future wage growth have fallen too,though the employment cost i ndex decelerated only a touch i n Q3.We see some ri sk of an upcomi ng“January effect”where more wage contracts reset

54、 at the start of the year and i ncorporate larger than usual cost of li vi ng adj ustments,resulti ng i n an outsi zed j ump i n wages even after seasonal adj ustment.But by the end of 2023,we expect a large decli ne i n the j obs-workers gap to reduce wage growth from the peak of 5.5%reached i n th

55、e mi ddle of thi s year to 4%,not far above our 3.5%esti mate of the pace compati ble wi th 2%i nflati on.Because loweri ng i nflati on to an acceptable rate i s li kely to take a whi le,a further decli ne i n wage growth next year would be a cruci al i ntermedi ate benchmark that could reassure pol

56、i cymakers that wi th pati ence,gradual labor market rebalanci ng can reverse i nflati onary overheati ng wi thout a recessi on.Exhibit 6:We Expect t he Jobs-Workers Gap t o Shrink t o t he 2mn Threshold That We Est imat e Is Needed by t he End of 2023,Led by a Large Decline in Job Openings and a pp

57、 Rise in t he Unemployment Rat e-4-3-2-10123456-4-3-2-10123456Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24US Jobs-Workers Gap Jobs-Workers Gap,JOLTS Job OpeningsJobs-Workers Gap,GS ForecastJobs-Workers Gap,Alternative Job Openings*MillionsMillionsRequired,GS Estimate*Average of job openings from Indee

58、d and LinkUp,scaled to JOLTS job openings.Mar-22Apr-22MayJun-22Jul-22Aug-Sep-Oct-22Nov-Dec-Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23MayJun-23Jul-23Aug-Sep-Oct-23Nov-Dec-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012Contributions to Change in Jobs-Workers GapSince March PeakMillionsMillionsChange in Jobs(Demand):Change in Employm

59、entChange in Job OpeningsChange in Jobs-Workers GapRequired Jobs-Workers Gap,GSEstimateShaded bars show GS forecast.Change in Labor Force(Supply):Change in Particpation RateChange in PopulationSour ce:Depar tment of Labor,Indeed,Li nkUp,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch18 November 2022 8Go

60、l dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ystCore Inflat ion Falls from 5%t o 3%,Led by Goods Cat egories The 2023 i nflati on outlook presents two qui te di fferent stori es i n the goods and servi ces categori es.On the goods si de,supply chai n recovery finally appears to be yi eldi ng the deflati onary pay

61、back that has been deferred for more than a year by a seri es of further pandemi c-and war-related di srupti ons.As producti on of i tems such as autos rebounds and i nventori es are rebui lt,competi ti on should reverse the scarci ty effects that rai sed retai l margi ns and consumer pri ces earli

62、er i n the pandemi c.I n addi ti on,more moderate commodi ty pri ce i nflati on,falli ng transportati on costs,and downward pressure on i mport pri ces from dollar appreci ati on should also help to reduce core PCE goods i nflati on,whi ch we expect wi ll fall sharply from 5.7%year-over-year now to-

63、1.6%by December 2023.Exhibit 7:Wage Growt h Is Showing Early Signs of Moderat ion and Should Fall t o About 4%by Lat e 2023-10010203040506070-1012345678201520162017201820192020202120222023Employment Cost Index*(left)Average Hourly Earnings(Composition-Adj)*(left)Monthly Wage Surveys*(right)IndexPerc

64、ent change,annual rate*ECI wages and salaries private sector ex incentives(SA by Haver),qoq annual rate.*6m annual rate.*Average of NFIB,Dallas Fed manufacturing,Dallas Fed services,Richmond Fed manufacturing,Richmond Fed services,NY Fed services,and Kansas City Fed services.1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

65、5.05.56.01.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.020152017201920212023Percent change,year agoPercent change,year agoGS ForecastGS Wage TrackerSour ce:Depar tment of Labor,Feder al Reser ve,NFIB,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch18 November 2022 9Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ystOn the servi ces

66、si de,di si nflati on wi ll take longer.We expect core PCE servi ces i nflati on to fall only modestly from 4.9%now to 4.4%by December 2023.The broad reason i s that there wi ll li kely be some lag from a slowdown i n wage growth to a slowdown i n i nflati on i n labor-i ntensi ve servi ces categori

67、 es.A more speci fic reason i s that the largest categori es,health care and shelter,already appear desti ned to run hot because of lags i n the offici al data.I n the health care category,a large Medi care fee adj ustment i n response to cost i ncreases thi s year wi ll affect government-pai d serv

68、i ces di rectly and li kely spi ll over to pri vately-pai d servi ces.I n the shelter category,web-based alternati ve measures of new tenant rents have already decelerated sharply to an annuali zed growth rate of about 3%.But the offici al seri eswhi ch covers rents on both new tenant and conti nui

69、ng tenant leasesi s li kely to ri se a firmer 6%next year as conti nui ng tenant rents catch up to market rates,though i t should decelerate sequenti ally.Exhibit 8:As Supply Chains Recover,Product ion Rebounds,and Invent ories Rebuild,Compet it ion Should Unwind Scarcit y Effect s and Lower Prices

70、in Supply-Const rained Goods Cat egories Like Aut os 2030405060708090100110120-3-2-10123452000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022Change in Average Supplier Delivery Time,Business Surveys(left)Production Materials Commitment Leadtime,ISMManufacturing Index(right)Z-ScoresDays051015

71、202530-80-60-40-20020406080100120Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Percent of avg.2019 levelMillions,annual rateNew Car Inventories(left)Auto Assemblies(right)Sour ce:Feder al Reser ve,Insti tute for Suppl y Management,Depar tment of Commer ce,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear c

72、h18 November 2022 10Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ystTaken together,we expect year-over-year core PCE i nflati on to decli ne from 5.1%i n September to 2.9%i n December 2023.We expect an even larger decli ne i n year-over-year core CPI i nflati on from 6.3%i n October to 3.2%i n December 2023.As

73、we noted last year,thi s would mean that the large di vergence between CPI and PCE i n 2022 should fade i n 2023 as decli nes i n durable goods pri ces wei gh more heavi ly on the CPI and the health servi ces categori es i n the two i ndi ces move i n opposi te di recti ons.Fine-Tuning t he Funds Ra

74、t e We expect the FOMC to slow the pace of rate hi kes to 50bp i n December and to 25bp Exhibit 9:Alt ernat ive Dat a Show a Sharp Slowdown in New Tenant Rent Growt h,but Shelt er Inflat ion Is Likely t o Remain High in t he Official Dat a in 2023 as Cont inuing Tenant Rent s Cat ch Up t o Market Ra

75、t es 0246810121416024681012141620192020202120222023Average of CoStar,Zillow,and YardiNew-Tenant Repeat RentIndex*(From BLS)Continuing-Tenant RentIndex*(Calculated by GS)All-Tenant Repeat RentIndex*(From BLS)CPI Rent+OERPercent change,year agoPercent change,year ago*Adjusted for the historical gap of

76、 the ATRR vs.CPI rent.-10-505101520253035-10-505101520253035201720182019202020212022Zillow(month-over-month,annual rate)Yardi(month-over-month,annual rate)CoStar(quarter-over-quarter,annual rate)Average of alternative measuresPercent change,annual ratePercent change,annual rateSequential Pace ofAlte

77、rnative Rent Measures(seasonally adjusted)Sour ce:Zi l l ow,Yar di,CoStar,Depar tment of Labor,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear chExhibit 10:We Expect Core PCE Inflat ion t o Fall from 5.1%Today t o 2.9%in December 2023,Led Mainly by Goods Cat egories-10123456-10123456Jan-19Apr-19Jul-19Oct-1

78、9Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24Oct-24Supply-Constrained*Other GoodsTravelOther ServicesHealthcareShelterCore PCEPercent change,year agoPercent change,year agoGS ForecastContributions to Year-on-Year Core PCE Inflatio

79、n*New,used,and rental cars,furniture,sporting equipment,household appliances,sports and recreational vehicles,and video,audio,photo,and info.equipment.Sour ce:Depar tment of Commer ce,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch18 November 2022 11Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ysti n February,March

80、,and May,rai si ng the funds rate to a peak of 5-5.25%.We see a couple reasons for hi kes to conti nue through the spri ng.Fi rst,our forecast i mpli es that the i nflati on trend i s li kely to remai n uncomfortably hi gh for a whi le longer.Second,wi th the fiscal ti ghteni ng now mostly behi nd u

81、s and household real di sposable i ncome ri si ng agai n,the FOMC wi ll need to ti ghten financi al condi ti ons enough to keep the economy on a soli dly below-potenti al growth path.We do not expect rate cuts next year because we do not expect a recessi on and we are skepti cal that a decli ne i n

82、i nflati on alone would lead the FOMC to cut toward neutral because we suspect that the Fed leadershi p shares our skepti ci sm about neutral rate Exhibit 11:We Expect a 50bp Hike in December Followed by 25bp Hikes in February,March,and May t o Raise t he Funds Rat e t o a Peak of 5-5.25%25bp50bp75b

83、p75bp75bp75bp50bp55bp25bp33bp25bp19bp25bp8bp0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5Mar May Jun Jul Sep NovDecFebMarMayMay 23LevelRate Hikes at FOMC MeetingsPercentPercentSize ofrate hike5.00-5.25%FOMC Estimate of Longer Run Rate5.03%3ActualGS ForecastMarket Pricing20

84、2220231.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.51.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.5Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Peak Federal Funds RateGSMarket PricingPercentPercentSour ce:Feder al Reser ve,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear chExhibit 12:The Inflat ion Trend Will Remain High in Early 2023,Creat ing Pressure

85、t o Keep Hiking 5.53.83.43.03.03.02.92.8 2.85.04.04.64.33.02.92.82.72.9012345678910012345678910Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24Inflation Trend at Upcoming FOMC MeetingsCore CPICore PCECore Services PCEPercent change,3m annualized ratePercent change,3m annualized rateDec.22:Feb.

86、23:Mar.23:May23:Jun.23:Jul.23:Sep.23:Nov.23:Dec.23:Latest Core CPI Before FOMC MeetingLatest Core PCE Before FOMC MeetingSour ce:Depar tment of Commer ce,Depar tment of Labor,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch18 November 2022 12Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ystesti mates.I nstead,we thi

87、nk the more natural path i f i nflati on comes down i s to si mply wai t unti l somethi ng goes wrong and then deli ver ei ther small cuts i n response to a smaller threat,si mi lar to the i nsurance cuts of 2019,or substanti al cuts i n response to a full recessi on.I n the other di recti on,i f i

88、nflati on i s sti cki er than we expect or underlyi ng growth momentum i s stronger,the FOMC would li kely rai se the funds rate to a hi gher level.Our Fed scenari o analysi s i mpli es that our probabi li ty-wei ghted average vi ew i s a touch more hawki sh than market pri ci ng.The Risks t o Our F

89、orecast of a Soft Landing Why do our vi ews di ffer from consensus?Why do we thi nk the Fed can achi eve a soft landi ng now when i t couldnt i n the 1960s and 1970s?And what would lead us to forecast a recessi on i nstead?Relati ve to consensus,we expect roughly i n-li ne i nflati on,a lower unempl

90、oyment rate,hi gher GDP growth,and a sli ghtly hi gher peak funds rate.On i nflati on,there i s substanti al di sagreement among forecasters,but li ttle of i t appears to be dri ven by di fferences i n unemployment rate forecaststhat i s,by tradi ti onal Phi lli ps curve effects.I nstead,i t i s li

91、kely dri ven by vi ews on whether resolvi ng pandemi c di slocati ons i n the goods sector wi ll deli ver a long-awai ted deflati onary i mpulse.Thi s has proven hard to ti me so far,but we thi nk the process i s finally on track.On the unemployment rate,we expect a smaller i ncrease because we cont

92、i nue to take an opti mi sti c vi ew i n the Beveri dge curve debate.Our growth forecast i s above consensus and our recessi on odds are below consensus even though our Fed forecast i s sli ghtly more hawki sh than consensus because we expect demand to prove more resi li ent next year,and because ou

93、r models i mply that the drag on growth from the ti ghteni ng i n financi al condi ti ons i s peaki ng now,whereas others li kely expect the“long and vari able lags”of monetary poli cy to peak later.Exhibit 13:Our Scenario Analysis of Possible Fed Pat hs Implies That Our Probabilit y-Weight ed Avera

94、ge View Is a Touch More Hawkish Than Market Pricing*The recession scenarios show unrealistically slow cuts to capturemany sub-scenarios of recessions starting at various points in time.0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.5Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-2

95、3 Sep-23 Mar-24 Sep-24 Mar-25 Sep-25Fed Funds Rate Scenario AnalysisHigher Inflation,More Hikes(20%)GS Baseline(30%)Recession,Limited Cuts(20%)*Recession,Substantial Cuts(30%)*PercentPercent0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.5Mar-22 Sep-22

96、Mar-23 Sep-23 Mar-24 Sep-24 Mar-25 Sep-25Fed Funds RateGS BaselineGS Probability-Weighted AverageMarket PricingPercentPercentSour ce:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch18 November 2022 13Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal ystWhy do we thi nk the Fed can reverse overheati ng more successfully t

97、oday than i t could i n the 1960s and 1970s?One reason i s that the problem i s less seri ous today:a part of the i nflati on overshoot sti ll reflects pandemi c-related supply-demand i mbalances that wi ll fade on thei r own;j ob openi ngs are very elevated,but the employment-to-populati on rati o

98、i s not unsustai nably hi gh;and whi le short-term i nflati on expectati ons are hi gh,long-term i nflati on expectati ons remai n anchored,meani ng that there i s not yet a percepti on of hi gh i nflati on as a new normal that only a deep recessi on could cure.Another reason i s that monetary poli

99、cymakers today have a more sophi sti cated understandi ng of both i nflati on dynami cs and thei r poli cy tools,are more poli ti cally i ndependent,and have better real-ti me data for moni tori ng the economy.Achi evi ng a soft or at least“softi sh”landi ng i s i n large part a questi on of cali br

100、ati ng poli cy ti ghteni ng correctly,and whi le thi s i snt easy,i t has gone well so far thi s year.Exhibit 14:Relat ive t o Consensus,We Expect a Slight ly More Favorable Inflat ion-Unemployment Tradeoff and See Less Risk of Recession Despit e Having a Slight ly More Hawkish Fed Forecast 12345672

101、34567Forecast for End-2023 Core PCE InflationForecast for End-2023 Unemployment RateGS ForecastConsensus Forecasts of End-2023 Unemployment Rate vs.End-2023 Core PCE Inflation,October WSJ Survey01020304050607080901003.03.54.04.55.05.56.0Probability of RecessionForecast for Peak Fed Funds RateConsens

102、us Forecasts of Peak Fed Funds Rate vs.Recession Probability,October WSJ SurveyGS ForecastSour ce:Wal l Str eet Jour nal,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear chExhibit 15:Short-Term Inflat ion Expect at ions Remain High,but Long-Term Expect at ions Are Anchored 1.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57

103、.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.02010201220142016201820202022UMich Next 1yrUMich Next 5-10yrNY Fed 1yr AheadNY Fed 3yr AheadPercentPercentHousehold Inflation Expectations-2-101234567-2-1012345672010201220142016201820202022GS Business Inflation Expectations IndexGS Company Price Announcement Ind

104、ex*PercentPercentBusiness Inflation Expectations*Share of sentences mentioning higher prices less share of sentences mentioning lower prices,rescaled to PCE inflation.Sour ce:Feder al Reser ve,Uni ver si ty of Mi chi gan,Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment Resear ch18 November 2022 14Gol dman SachsUS

105、Economi cs Anal ystWhat would make us change our mi nd?We would rai se our recessi on odds i f the beni gn labor market adj ustment led by a decli ne i n j ob openi ngs stops,i f elevated near-term i nflati on expectati ons i n the busi ness sector make a return to pre-pandemi c labor market condi t

106、i ons less effecti ve i n bri ngi ng down wage growth and i nflati on than we are assumi ng,or i f new global supply shocks such as another large j ump i n energy pri ces add to i nflati on momentum and make the Feds task even harder.David Mericle18 November 2022 15Gol dman SachsUS Economi cs Anal y

107、stThe US Economi c and Fi nanci al Outl ook 202020212022202320242025(f)(f)(f)(f)Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4OUTPUT AND SPENDINGReal GDP-2.85.91.91.11.61.9-1.6-0.62.60.90.81.01.31.3Real GDP(annual=Q4/Q4,quarterly=yoy)-1.55.70.31.11.91.93.71.81.80.30.91.31.01.1Consumer Expenditures-3.08.32.81.91.81.91.32.01.43.31

108、.51.51.51.5Residential Fixed Investment7.210.7-10.2-15.8-0.12.0-3.1-17.8-26.4-21.3-17.5-10.0-5.00.0Business Fixed Investment-4.96.43.31.93.33.67.90.13.70.12.12.32.43.0Structures-10.1-6.4-9.5-4.82.43.0-4.4-12.7-15.4-10.90.00.01.02.0Equipment-10.510.34.52.02.63.011.4-2.110.80.01.01.51.52.5Intellectual

109、 Property Products4.89.78.84.94.34.510.88.96.95.54.04.04.04.0Federal Government6.22.3-3.1-0.8-0.10.0-5.3-3.43.7-3.0-1.0-1.00.00.0State&Local Government0.4-0.50.30.81.01.0-0.4-0.61.70.21.01.01.01.0Net Exports($bn,12)-923-1,233-1,369-1,304-1,351-1,371-1,489-1,431-1,274-1,282-1,282-1,296-1,308-1,329Inv

110、entory Investment($bn,12)-55-19112756660215110626175757575Industrial Production,Mfg.-6.35.73.51.52.53.23.63.20.31.71.41.51.82.1HOUSING MARKETHousing Starts(units,thous)1,3951,6051,6131,5701,5701,5701,7201,6471,4581,6271,5701,5701,5701,570New Home Sales(units,thous)83176963154972278677660960853349652

111、8559613Existing Home Sales(units,thous)5,6386,1275,0573,8314,1474,5096,0575,3734,7704,0283,7503,7933,8583,924Case-Shiller Home Prices(%yoy)*9.518.86.7-7.5-2.23.820.019.613.16.7-1.0-7.4-8.2-7.5INFLATION(%ch,yr/yr)Consumer Price Index(CPI)*1.37.16.83.22.62.58.08.68.37.25.74.03.23.1Core CPI*1.65.55.93.

112、22.72.56.36.06.36.15.64.73.83.3Core PCE*1.55.04.52.92.42.25.35.04.94.74.13.73.32.9LABOR MARKETUnemployment Rate(%)6.73.93.64.14.24.23.63.63.53.63.83.94.04.1U6 Underemployment Rate(%)11.77.36.77.78.07.97.06.66.76.77.07.27.57.7Payrolls(thous,monthly rate)-77456237029526053934938121240252525Employment-

113、Population Ratio(%)57.459.560.059.659.459.260.159.960.160.059.959.859.759.6Labor Force Participation Rate(%)61.561.962.362.262.061.862.462.262.362.362.362.262.262.2Average Hourly Earnings(%yoy)4.94.25.14.23.73.35.45.35.14.74.54.44.14.0GOVERNMENT FINANCEFederal Budget(FY,$bn)-3,132-2,775-1,375-1,250-

114、1,350-1,600-FINANCIAL INDICATORSFF Target Range(Bottom-Top,%)0-0.250-0.25 4.25-4.55-5.25 4.25-4.5 3.5-3.750.25-0.5 1.5-1.753-3.25 4.25-4.54.75-55-5.255-5.255-5.2510-Year Treasury Note0.931.523.754.003.753.652.322.983.833.753.904.004.004.00Euro(/$)1.221.130.991.051.101.101.111.050.980.990.950.981.021

115、.05Yen($/)103115144125115115121136145144145133128125*Annual inflation numbers are December year-on-year values.Quarterly values are Q4/Q4.PCE=Personal consumption expenditures.Denotes end of period.Note:Published figures in bold.Source:Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.*Weighted average of me

116、tro-level HPIs for 381 metro cities where the weights are dollar values of housing stock reported in the American Community Survey.Annual numbers are Q4/Q4.20222023THE US ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL OUTLOOK(%change on previous period,annualized,except where noted)Sour ce:Gol dman Sachs Gl obal Investment

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