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今日导读

当地时间2月15日，埃隆·马斯克远程参加了阿联酋迪拜的2023年世界政府峰会，在这场连线中，马斯克进行了广泛讨论，包括对人工智能和ChatGPT存在的担忧。马斯克表示，ChatGPT证实了人工智能（AI）已经获得了令人难以置信的发展，但这已成为人类应该担心的一件事。马斯克在视频发言中强调，人工智能是未来人类文明最大的风险之一。

今日正文

Well, to 10 years, it's always difficult to predict technology with precision, especially over a 10-year timeframe when it is changing so much.

精确地预测今后十年的科技发展是很难的。特别是在10年的时间里，它的变化非常之大。

I mean, there's obviously the transition to sustainable energy with the solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles, and that is, if you look at the percentage growth of that, that is a very high percentage growth.

我的意思是，目前明显是在向太阳能、风能、电池和电动汽车等，可持续能源方向过渡，而且，如果你看一下这个百分比的增长。它是非常高的。

Although because of the massive industrial base of the current sort of fossil fuel economy, even if all, for example, if electric cars were 100% of production immediately, it would take 20 years to replace the fleet.

虽然目前化石燃料经济的工业基础规模大。但是如果电动汽车立即达到100%的产量，用它们来替换现在的车辆需要20年。

So this is still something that is quite gradual, you know, it's measured in at least a few. you know 30, 40 years type of timeframe.

所以，这是科技发展一个渐进的过程，至少需要在三四十年的时间里进行估量。

On a more sort of near-term timeframe, I think artificial intelligence is something we need to be quite concerned about and really be attentive to the safety of AI.

短期内，我认为我们需要非常关注的是人工智能，关注它的安全性。

You mentioned a ChatGPT earlier.

你之前提到过ChatGPT。

You know, I played a significant role in the creation of OpenAI.

我在OpenAI的创建中发挥了重要的作用。

Essentially, at the time, I was concerned that Google was not paying enough attention to AI safety.

实际上，我当时担心谷歌对人工智能安全的关注不够。

And so I, with a number of other people, created OpenAI, and although initially it was created as an open source non-profit, and now it is closed source and for profit.

所以我和其他很多人，创建了OpenAI，尽管最初它是作为一个开源的非营利组织创建的，但是现在它是一个闭源的营利性组织。

I don't have any stake in OpenAI anymore.

我不再与OpenAI有任何利害关系。

Nor am I on the board.

我也不是它的董事会中的一员。

Nor do I control it in any way.

我也不再以任何方式控制它。

But the ChatGPT, I think has illustrated to people just how advanced AI has become.

ChatGPT向人们展示了人工智能已经变得多么先进。

Because the AI has been advanced for a while.

因为人工智能已经发展了一段时间了。

It just didn't have a user interface that was accessible to most people.

只是它没有大多数人都可以访问的用户界面。

So what really ChatGPT has done is just put an accessible user interface on AI technology that has been present for a few years.

因此，ChatGPT真正做到的只是在已经存在了几年的人工智能技术基础上提供一个可访问的用户界面。

And there are much more advanced versions for that that are coming out.

还有更多的高级版本即将推出。

So I think we, you know I think, we need to regulate AI safety, frankly, because you think of any technology which is potentially a risk to people like if it's an aircraft or , you know, cars or medicine, we have regulatory bodies that oversee the public safety of cars and planes and medicine.

所以，坦率地说，我认为我们需要监管人工智能的安全性，因为你能想到的任何可能对人们造成风险的技术，比如飞机、汽车或是药品，我们都有监管机构来监督它们的公共安全性。

And I think we should probably have a similar sort of regulatory oversight for artificial intelligence.

我认为我们应该对人工智能进行类似的监管。

Because it is I think actually a vigorous to society than cars or planes or medicine.

因为我认为人工智能对社会来说实际上比汽车、飞机或药物造成的影响更大。

And this may have to slow down AI a little bit, but I think that might also be a good thing.

虽然这样做可能会稍微减缓人工智能的发展，但我认为这可能也是一件好事。

The challenge here is that a government regulatory authorities tend to be set up in reaction to something bad that happened.

目前面临的挑战是，政府监管机构往往是为了应对已发生的坏事而设立的。

So if you could say aircraft or cars, you know, the cars were unregulated at the beginning, aircraft were unregulated, but they had lots of airplane crashes, and in some cases manufacturers that were cutting corners, and a lot of people were dying.

所以，如果你想说飞机或者是汽车等技术，其实汽车一开始是不受监管的，飞机一开始也是不受管制的，但发生了很多飞机坠毁事故，有些时候，是因为制造商偷工减料，造成很多人死亡。

So the public was not happy about that.

所以公众对此并不满意。

And so they established a regulatory authority to improve safety.

于是他们建立了一个监管机构来提高安全性。

And now commercial airliners are extremely safe.

现在，商用客机非常安全。

In fact, they're safer than if you were to drive somewhere.

事实上，乘坐飞机比你开车去某个地方更安全。

The safety for a commercial airliner is better than a car.

商用飞机的安全性比汽车好。

And cars are also extremely safe compared to where they used to be.

与过去相比，汽车现在也非常安全。

But if you look at, say, the introduction of seatbelts.

但如果你来看安全带的引入。

The auto industry fought the introduction of seatbelts as a safety measure for, I think, 10 or 15 years before finally the regulators made them put seatbelts in cars.

汽车行业反对将安全带作为一种安全措施，他们坚持了10年或15年，直到监管机构最后要求他们在汽车中安装安全带。

And that greatly improved the safety of cars.

这大大提高了汽车的安全性。

And that airbags were another big improvement in safety.

安全气囊是汽车安全性的又一大改进。

So my concern is that with AI, if there's something bad that something goes wrong, the reaction might be too slow from a regulatory standpoint.

所以我对于人工智能担心的是，如果有什么不好的地方或是什么地方出了问题，从监管角度来看，应对措施可能太慢。

So I'd say one of the biggest risks to the future of civilization is AI.

所以我想说，人类文明未来面临的最大风险之一是人工智能。

But AI is both positive or negative.

但人工智能既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。

It has great, great promise, great capability, but also with that comes great danger.

它有巨大的前景和能力，但随之而来的是巨大的危险。

I mean, you look at, say, nuclear, just the discovery of nuclear physics, you had nuclear power generation, but also nuclear bombs.

我的意思是，比如说，核物理学发现了核能，之后出现了核能发电，但也出现了核弹。

So anyway, I think we should be quite concerned about it and we should have some regulation of what is fundamentally a risk to the public.

所以，我认为我们应该非常关注这一问题，我们应该对公众面临的基本风险进行监管。

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