中国城市旅游发展的时空演化及影响因素

Tourism industry has become an important driving force of China's economic growth, and its development has unique characteristics and complexity. Based on the analysis of static (spatial) Markov chain model, the non-static spatial Markov chain model is innovatively introduced to study the spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of urban tourism development in China. The results show that: (1) The development of urban tourism in China has the characteristics of long-term and sustainability, and there is a trend of 'path dependence' in general. At the same time, the probability that the low level area of tourism development evolves to the high-level area of tourism development is low, and the phenomenon of 'poverty trap' also exists in urban tourism development. (2) There is close spatial correlation in the evolution of urban tourism development, that is to say, the higher the level of tourism development adjacent to a city, the higher the probability of its transfer to the superior type area; conversely, the lower the level of tourism development adjacent to a city, the higher the probability of its transfer to the sub-type area. (3) The urban tourism development in China is influenced by the level of marketization, the density of star hotels, the endowment of tourism resources and other factors. Finally, in view of the over-commercialization and other problems existing in China's tourism development, we put forward some policy suggestions. Building tourism community is an important way to break the 'path dependence' effect of urban tourism development; then the future tourism development needs to restrain the over-commercialization and highlight the tourism characteristics of each city.

Keywords： tourism development; spatio-temporal evolution; spatial dependency; influencing factor; non-static spatial Markov