新疆气候水文变化趋势及面临问题思考

Xinjiang is an important part of the arid Central Asia， which responds sensitively to the global climate change and has the water resources problem severely. Studying the impact of climate change on water resources in Xinjiang has a significant effect on the adaptability of future climate change and water resource security. Based on the latest climate-hydrological observations and research results， this paper analyzes the characteristics of hydrological and climate change and the impacts of climate change on water resources， and discusses the main problems and countermeasures. Results indicate that： （1） Temperature in Xinjiang had a significant increasing trend during 1961—2018， and the increase rate of temperature was higher than the global average and the winter change could be the most important factor for the rise in annual air temperature. Precipitation and number of precipitation days had increased obviously， especially in summer. However， both temperature and precipitation had fluctuated with high level frequency， and the sharp increasing trend had retarded since the 21st century. The climate experienced a transformation from warm-wet to warm-dry， with a intensifying drought. （2） The number of extreme maximum temperature， extreme minimum temperature and high temperature days had increased significantly since the beginning of 21st century. The first day of high temperature was brought ahead， the last day of high temperature was postponed， and the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events and rainstorm snow had increased significantly. （3） Under the influence of climate change and human activities， the runoff in sources of the Tarim River basin had increased obviously. The water of the Bosten Lake had expanded since 2013. The Ebinur Lake had shrunk and the Sayram Lake had been expanded steadily. The glaciers had been generally retreated with great regional differences， specially in the Tianshan and Altai Mountains. （4） There are main problems of climate and hydrological changes in Xinjiang， such as unclear understanding of climate change trends and physical processes， difficult to handle the increased risk of hydro-meteorological disasters， the uncertainty in the impact of climate change， especially， the water security. （5） It is suggested to seek the advantages and avoid the disadvantages， to seize the climate opportunity and to speed up the construction of ecological environment. Seizing the climate opportunity， let us to carry out comprehensive investigations on climate and hydrology system， to strengthen mechanisms research， to build a coordinated comprehensive observations network and to improve the ability to control the risks of hydro-meteorological disasters. It is necessary to take effective and orderly adaptation to climate change to a strategic level to serve the building of a beautiful Xinjiang and high-quality development.

Keywords： Xinjiang ; climate change ; runoff ; lake ; water resources ; countermeasures and suggestions