中国北方地区寒潮时空特征及其成因分析

Based on the observation data of daily temperature of 269 sites and atmospheric circulation index in northern China from 1960 to 2017， linear regression， correlation analysis， inverse distance interpolation （IDW） and entropy weight method are used to， the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of cold wave frequency in northern China in the last 58 years and its causes were discussed， and then using the socio-economic statistics such as cultivated land area， per capita GDP and sown area of crops in the study area， the risk regionalization of cold wave in northern China was evaluated and analyzed from four aspects， including risk factors， environmental sensitivity， carrier vulnerability， disaster prevention and reduction ability. The results show that in the last 58 years， the frequency of cold wave in northern China decreased 0.20 times per 10 years， a total of 159.7 cold tides occurred in the last 58 years， of which the frequency of cold wave in winter and November was the most， and the maximum frequency appears in Jingyu County， Antu County of Jilin Province， Aershan City， Sonid Left Banner， Sonid Right Banner of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region， frequency up to 508 times， an average of 8.8 times a year， the minimum frequency of cold waves occurred in the south of north China， Kashi and Akesu City of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region. There is a big difference in the frequency of cold wave in different grades， the general cold wave frequency is the most， total 102.9 times， the general cold wave， the stronger cold wave， the strong cold wave and extra-heavy cold wave is similar to the cold wave frequency in spatial distribution， and generally shows the distribution law of increasing from south to north. The northeast region is the active region of cold wave， the northwest active region of cold wave is mainly in Aletai of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region， the North China active region is in central Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. On annual scale， the cold wave in northern China was dominated by CA， APVII， AO and APVAI， while the influence factors among seasons were detected， spring cold wave is mainly affected by CQ and CA， and the autumn cold wave was significantly correlated with APVII， CA and AO， while winter cold wave was significantly correlated with APVII， CA， AO and SHI. The comprehensive risk regionalization shows that the Aletai region of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region， the Daxinganling region of Heilongjiang Province， the southeast of Jilin Province and Shandong Province are the high risk areas of cold wave occurrence， and the low risk areas are mainly distributed in Akesu and Kashi City of Xinjiang， it is consistent with the spatial distribution of cold wave frequency.

Keywords： cold wave frequency ; temporal and spatial characteristics ; influencing factor ; risk division ; northern China