雷暴尺度天气集合数值预报研究

集合数值天气预报目前是全球中期业务数值预报的核心支柱，在区域性短期天气预报中集合预报也已有广泛业务应用。中小尺度灾害性对流天气过程具有强烈非线性特征以及更为复杂的湿微物理过程，加上极高的空间和时间分辨率要求，其数值模式预报面临更大的不确定性及挑战。延展集合预报技术到雷暴天气尺度也就成为自然合理的选择。故此，对雷暴尺度天气集合数值预报所面临的科学问题、主要构造技术、研究现状、仍存在的问题及挑战等做了力所能及的综述和讨论。

集合预报，雷暴，数值预报

ensemble forecast, thunderstorm, numerical prediction

Ensemble numerical weather prediction plays essential roles to medium-range weather forecast, and also becomes more popular in regional short-range weather forecast. Since hazardous convection weather systems have very high nonlinearity, complex moist microphysics processes, and very high temporal and spatial variation, the numerical prediction for such events are more challenged. It is thus more desire to employ ensemble technique to storm-scale weather prediction. This paper reviews key scientifi questions, ensemble technique used, current status, main challenges and problems faced in storm-scale ensemble forecast.