韩国网友问：中美不下场，朝鲜和韩国之间开战谁会赢？

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如果朝鲜对韩国发动突然袭击，在没有驻韩美军援助的情况下，韩国在单独与朝鲜作战的情况下能够取胜吗？韩国网友在美版知乎Quora上提问：朝鲜和韩国之间开战谁会赢？有两个网友的观点完全相反，我们看看他们的回答。

海外网友杰夫·保尔的回答

Since the founding of North Korea, we have had a realization that without the intervention of foreign powers, North Korea can immediately unify the Korean Peninsula. Moreover, in recent years, with the significant increase in the economic gap between North and South Korea, many people have begun to question whether North Korea still has the power to unify the Korean Peninsula. This question is actually easy to answer, because the GDP measured by current economic standards cannot fully reflect a country's true strength. I cannot measure GDP alone, especially at the military level.

从朝鲜建国时我们就有一个认知，如果没有域外大国介入，朝鲜马上就可以统一朝鲜半岛。而且是在近些年来，伴随着朝韩经济差距显著增加，很多人开始质疑朝鲜是不是还有统一朝鲜半岛的实力。这个问题实际上很好回答，因为如今衡量经济标准的GDP并不能完全体现一国的真正实力。我尤其在军事层面上，不能只用GDP来衡量。

1、 GDP and military are not fully linked

一、GDP与军事不完全挂钩

In fact, the Russia-Ukraine conflict well illustrates that GDP cannot be used as a standard to measure a country's strength. If a country has agriculture, resources, and core industrial strength, I was definitely a strong country during the Cold War. But when measured by GDP indicators, it may not seem very strong.

其实这次俄乌冲突就很好地说明了GDP并不能完全作为衡量一国实力的标准。如果一个国家有农业、有资源，核心工业实力也不差，我在冷战时期这样的国家绝对是个强国。但是在GDP的指标衡量下，看起来可能就不是很强。

This was the case in both the former Soviet Union and today's Russia. Although GDP can be used as a reference data for the economy, it cannot be used as an absolute data. For example, some financial countries in Europe do have good data under the GDP measurement system. But once a war breaks out, these countries may not even be able to buy food.

曾经的苏联，今天的俄罗斯都是这个情况。GDP虽然可以作为经济的参考数据，但是不能作为绝对的数据。比如欧洲一些金融国，他们在GDP的衡量体系下确实数据好看。但是一旦战争爆发，这些国家可能连粮食都买不到。

The same situation applies to North Korea. If you look at it on paper, the GDP data is not in the same level as South Korea, but North Korea is definitely not as bad as imagined.

朝鲜也是一样的情况。如果从纸面上看，GDP数据与韩国完全不是一个档次，但是朝鲜绝对没有想象中那么差。

North Korea has almost no financial industry, mainly relying on the primary and secondary industries. All transactions are one-time, and GDP is naturally not much higher. But financial derivatives trading in Europe and America only involves double counting the number of transactions and does not generate any value. All we get is foam, foam and more foam. The mismatch between GDP and national strength would be even more eye-catching if projected onto the military.

朝鲜几乎没有金融业，主要就是靠第一和第二产业。所有的交易都是一次性，GDP自然高不到哪里去。但欧美这种金融衍生品交易，只是重复计算交易次数，并且是没有产生任何价值。得到的只不过是泡沫、泡沫以及更多的泡沫。这种GDP与国力的不匹配，如果投射到军事上就更加让人眼前一亮了。

Modern warfare is becoming increasingly difficult to have absolute air superiority. At present, North Korea also has a KN-06 regional air defense missile system, which is almost at the level of s300pmu1. This level of air defense system is still sufficient for the Korean Air Force. The main force of the South Korean Air Force is still the F16C and F-15K, with only three F35As. My main third-generation aircraft cannot break through hundreds of North Korea's KN-06 regional air defense missile systems. The war between North and South Korea turned into a land war.

现代战争越来越难拥有绝对的制空权。目前朝鲜也拥有KN-06区域防空导弹系统，这套防御系统差不多是s300pmu1的水平。这种级别的防空系统面对韩国空军还是足够的。韩国空军主力还是F16C和F-15K，F35A仅有三架。我主力三代机无法突破数百套朝鲜的KN-06区域防空导弹系统。朝韩之间的战争就变成了陆地的战争。

2、 North Korean Army Hangs South Korean Army

二、朝鲜陆军吊打韩军

Once the South Korean Air Force is unable to gain an advantage, it becomes very difficult to win on land. North Korea inherited the Soviet Union's concept of mechanization and depth, and during the Korean War in the 1950s, the 105 tank regiment of North Korea was invincible. Even to the extent that the Korean army fled when they saw North Korean tanks. And it was North Korea that did not lose to the US military before landing in Incheon, and even captured a division commander of the US military. If it weren't for North Korea's insufficient military strength, it might have driven the South Korean US coalition into the sea.

一旦韩国空军无法取得优势，陆地上想要取胜就变得十分困难。朝鲜继承苏联的机械化大纵深理念，50年代朝鲜战争期间，朝鲜的105坦克团就所向披靡。甚至出现了韩军见到朝鲜坦克就逃跑的程度。而且是朝鲜在仁川登陆前并不输美军，甚至把美军一个师长俘虏了。如果不是朝鲜兵力不足，可能就把韩美联军赶下海了。

After the Korean War, North Korea has always attached great importance to the development of tank forces, importing a large number of tanks from the Soviet Union and relying on Russia to upgrade and transform them. Currently, North Korea has over 3000 tanks. Once the war breaks out, two legions on the western and eastern fronts of North Korea can quickly penetrate Seoul. Then the North Korean 802th Tank Legion can break through and destroy the Korean army's defense system head-on.

朝鲜在朝鲜战争之后一直非常重视坦克部队的发展，从苏联大量进口坦克并靠俄罗斯升级改造。目前朝鲜已经拥有3000多辆坦克。一旦战争爆发，朝鲜西线和东线各两个军团可以快速插到首尔。然后朝鲜第802坦克军团可以正面突破摧毁韩军防御系统。

Once the defense system of the Korean army on the 38th parallel is destroyed, the entire Korean army will fall into a state of being leaderless. At that time, several North Korean legions can march forward with great strides, clearing away residual troops from various parts of South Korea and tightly surrounding Seoul. At this time, the Korean army could only choose to surrender or die in Seoul.

一旦三八线韩军防御体系被摧毁后，整个韩军就会陷入群龙无首的地步。到时候朝鲜几个军团就可以大踏步前进，清除韩国境内各地残余部队，死死将首尔围住。此时的韩军只能选择投降或者在首尔等死。

North Korea also has a killer weapon, which is the artillery army. This army inherited the Soviet artillery omnipotence theory. Today we can also see the Russian army using the universal theory of artillery to fight on the Ukrainian battlefield. The Russian army dispatched ground troops at the beginning of the war. However, the casualties of the Russian army on the Ukrainian battlefield are not significant, and the damage to the Ukrainian army can even reach 1:10.

朝鲜还有一个杀手锏，就是炮兵军。这个军是继承了苏军火炮万能理论。今天我们在乌克兰战场也能看到俄军使用火炮万能理论打仗。俄军在战争开始就派出了地面部队。但是俄军在乌克兰战场的伤亡并不大，与乌军战损甚至可以做到1：10。

Such a battle loss ratio cannot be achieved without the US military conducting several months of bombing in the early stages and directly dispatching ground troops. The main reason why the Russian military's combat damage ratio is so high is still due to artillery. The Russian army attacked the fortified areas of Ukraine in the eastern region of Ukraine, mainly by surrounding the Ukrainian fortresses in units of companies with powerful mechanized troops, and then conducting long-term shelling. When the company was bombed to the point where only a few people were left, the Russian army was cleaning up the area.

这样的战损比，美军如果不进行前期持续几个月的轰炸，而且是直接派出地面部队是无法做到的。之所以俄军战损比能这么高，主要还是因为火炮。俄军在乌东地区攻击乌克兰筑垒地区，主要以强大的机械化兵团将以连为单位的乌军堡垒包围，然后进行长时间的炮轰。等到这个连被轰炸到仅剩几个人的时候，俄军在对这一地区进行清理。

The artillery army of North Korea is the unit under this concept. Currently, North Korea has two artillery armies, 128 and 620. Each artillery corps has one self-propelled artillery division, one artillery division, one tactical missile brigade, and three rocket artillery brigades. A artillery corps has 1000 guns, which, with the protection of air defense systems, can bomb any Korean unit.

朝鲜的炮兵军就是这个理念下的部队。目前朝鲜有128和620两个炮兵军。每个炮兵军拥有一个自行火炮师、一个炮兵师、一个战术导弹旅和三个火箭炮旅。一个炮兵军拥有1000门火炮，这些火力在有防空系统保护的情况下，可以轰炸掉任何一个韩军单位。

And here we have to specifically mention North Korea's rocket launcher units. Currently, North Korea has two types of 600mm rocket launchers, KN24 and KN25. The power of this rocket launcher can rival the M270 rocket launcher of the US military. The killing power of one round can reach 3000 square meters. It can be imagined that after a barrage of North Korean rocket launchers, South Korea's defensive positions will only be a sea of fire.

而且是这里就不得不特别提到朝鲜的火箭炮单位。目前朝鲜火箭炮有KN24和KN25两种600毫米火箭炮。这种火箭炮的威力可以匹敌美军的M270火箭炮。一发的杀伤力可以达到3000平方米。可以想象，朝鲜一个火箭炮旅齐射之后，韩国防御阵地只会是一片火海。

And Seoul, the capital of South Korea, is within the coverage of North Korean rockets. Once North Korea launches an attack, it will immediately paralyze all airports, air defense facilities, and military bases near South Korea's 38th parallel to Seoul.

而且韩国首都首尔就在朝鲜火箭炮的覆盖范围内。朝鲜一旦发动进攻，第一时间就会瘫痪掉韩国三八线到首尔附近一切机场、防空设施和军事基地。

韩国网友金海威的回答

There is no possibility of South Korea failing.

韩国失败的可能性是不存在的。

Economy and Money:

经济和金钱:

The ongoing war is also a war of attrition of money.

持续的战争也是一场金钱的消耗战。

South Korea's GDP: 1.4 trillion US dollars

韩国的GDP: 1.4万亿美元

North Korea's Gross Domestic Product is 12.3 billion US dollars

朝鲜国内生产总值为123亿美元

It goes without saying who is strong and who is weak.

谁强谁弱，不言自明。

Military/军队：

These are referred to as the 3.5 generation tanks in the picture. Above is the upgraded version of K1, and below is the new tank of K2 Panther.

Now, you may be thinking: So what? Can South Korea win with a 2-1 disadvantage?

现在，你可能在想:那又怎样?那么韩国能否以2:1的弱势取胜呢?

The answer is: Yes, they can.

答案是:是的，他们可以。

Once, an M1A1 Abrams (third generation tank) was suddenly attacked by 12 T-55 tanks (mostly the worse firepower T-62) and completely destroyed. Considering that the firepower of the T-62 tank has no effect on the M1A1 Abrams armor, we can compare it as a whole. (K1 is basically a replica of Abrams, except for slightly less armor and slightly more maneuverability to adapt to North Korea's mountainous terrain, everything else is basically the same.)

有一次，一辆M1A1艾布拉姆斯(第三代坦克)遭到了12辆t -55坦克(基本上是火力更差的t -62)的突然袭击，并将其全部摧毁。考虑到T-62坦克的火力对M1A1艾布拉姆斯装甲没有任何作用，我们可以可以整体进行比较。(K1基本上是艾布拉姆斯的翻版，除了装甲稍微少一点，机动性稍微多一点，以适应朝鲜的山地地形之外，其他基本一样)

But the army is not just tanks. Let's take a look at the artillery.

但是军队不仅仅是坦克，让我们来看看火炮。

There are approximately 4300 towed guns in the north and approximately 4700 in the south. I won't explain the quality differences anymore, it's clear which one is better or worse.

北方约有4300门牵引火炮，南方约有4700门。我就不解释质量差异了，孰优孰劣很明显。

The quantity is roughly equal+the quality is superior=the south rolls over the north.

数量大致相等+质量优越=南方碾压北方。

Now, let's take a look at self-propelled artillery, because this is where it becomes interesting.

现在，让我们看看自行火炮，因为这是它让比较变得有趣的地方。

There are approximately 1100 k9s, 900 K55s, 300 k55a1s (exact quantity unknown, but a total of 1200 k55s), and a small amount of k106ht (although there will be approximately 850 in the future, currently in production) in the south.

南方大约有1100架k9, 900架K55s, 300 架k55a1(确切数量未知，但是总共有1200架k55)和少量k106ht(虽然将来会有大约850架，目前正在生产中)。

North Korea has approximately 4400 self-propelled howitzers, the exact number is unknown, but the specific types of weapons are unknown. They really have some ATS-59 (armored trucks), most of which have a penetration force below 200mm. (K2's frontal armor can withstand an attack of at least 800 millimeters)

朝鲜拥有大约4400门自行榴弹炮，具体数量不详，但具体武器种类不详。他们真的有一些ats -59(装甲卡车)大多数穿透力低于200mm。(K2的正面装甲可以承受至少800毫米的攻击)

Despite the threat of Gu Shan's self-propelled artillery, the actual combat in the Battle of Yeonpyeong (with four soldiers killed and no civilian casualties in South Korea) proved that their firing rate was catastrophic at 1-2 rounds per 5 minutes, rather than the expected 1 round per minute. Their firepower was approximately 105mm caliber.

虽然有谷山自行火炮的威胁，但在延坪战役(4名士兵死亡，南韩没有平民伤亡)的实战证明，他们的射速是灾难性的每5分钟1 - 2发，而不是预期的每分钟1发，他们的火力大约是105毫米口径的炮。

No matter how many poorly equipped and poorly trained soldiers North Korea has, how many Soviet era AFVs there are, and how many garbage MLRs there are, they cannot make up for the huge gap.

无论朝鲜有多少装备差、训练差的士兵，有多少苏联时代的afv，有多少垃圾mlrs，他们都无法弥补巨大的差距。

Air Force/空军:

Due to sanctions, North Korea actually does not even have aircraft fuel.

因为制裁，朝鲜实际上连飞机燃料都没有。

The only aircraft used by North Korea that may have any chance is the MiG-29, and it has not been trained. MiG's age is too long. Half of them hardly work. Its mission is to protect Pyongyang, not to fight. It is equivalent to the F-16

朝鲜使用的唯一可能有任何机会的飞机是米格-29，而且没有受过训练，米格的年头太长了。其中一半几乎不工作。它的任务是保护平壤，而不是打仗。它与F-16相当

In fact, except for the MiG-29 in the north, all other jet fighters, such as the MiG-15, 17, 19, 21, and 23, are like paper planes to these fighters:

实际上，除了北方的米格-29之外，其他所有的喷气式战斗机，比如米格-15、17、19、21和23，对这些战斗机来说都像是纸飞机:

Navy/海军:

This is undoubtedly the part that worries the South a bit. The navy is not only the least developed field in South Korea, but also the most developed field in North Korea. In addition, this is also one of North Korea's few advantages (with a very high number of submarines) where it comes into play. However, we also know that the capabilities of submarines are extremely limited.

这无疑是让南方略微担忧的部分。海军不仅是韩国最不发达的领域，也是朝鲜最发达的领域。此外，这也是朝鲜为数不多的优势之一(潜艇数量极高)发挥作用的地方。然而，我们也知道潜艇的能力是极其有限的。

In addition, the South has an extremely important fundamental advantage. The North Korean navy is divided into two parts: east and west, while the South Korean navy is free to unite.

此外，南方还有一个极其重要的根本优势。因为地理条件原因，朝鲜海军必须分为东西两部分，而韩国海军可以东西方自由联合。

Take a look at this map.

看看这张地图。

There are no huge canals in the north, are there? This means that the forces of the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea are completely separated. Please also pay attention to Jeju Island to the south. This is an unsinkable aircraft carrier and naval base to prevent the North Korean navy from advancing downwards.

北方没有巨大的运河，对吧?这意味着东海和黄海的力量是完全分开的。还请注意南面的济州岛。这可是永不沉没的航空母舰和海军基地，以防朝鲜海军向下推进。

Of course, if you compare major ships, South Korea is in a leading position.

当然，如果你比较主要战列舰，韩国处于领先位置。

This is a Dokdo class LPH/helicopter carrier. This is a 19000 ton ship with two.

这是一艘独岛级LPH/直升机航母。这是一艘19,000吨的船，有两艘。

This is a Krivak class frigate. This is a 3500 ton ship. This is one of them.

这是克里瓦克级护卫舰。这是一艘3500吨级的。这是其中一艘。

Although submarines pose a threat to the South Korean navy, North Korea only has two submarines and one submarine launched ballistic missile launcher, so it has almost no impact on the overall flow of combat.

虽然潜艇对韩国海军构成威胁，但朝鲜只有2艘潜艇，有一个潜射弹道导弹发射器，所以它对战斗的整体流几乎没有影响。

Overall, submarines pose some threats, but are easily counterattacked, and victory once again belongs to the south - South Korea.

总的来说，潜艇构成了一些威胁，但很容易被反击，胜利再次归于南方—韩国。

Missiles, Special Forces, and NBC (Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons):

导弹、特种部队和nbc（核武、生化武器）:

From the overall firepower and the number of short and medium range missiles, South Korea is unexpectedly stronger than North Korea. However, the exact number is confidential and we will never know the exact number. But it is certain that for South Korea, the only real missile threat will be intercontinental ballistic missiles and long-range missiles. It's hard to admit, but the Aegis system, THAAD, Patriot missiles, and M-SAM cannot intercept every missile from North Korea. South Korea is also developing L-SAM and KAMD, and in the near future, they will also completely eliminate this threat.

But what about biological and chemical weapons? Aren't they weapons of mass destruction that can bring victory to North Korea?

但是生化武器呢?难道它们不是能给朝鲜带来胜利的大规模杀伤性武器吗?

But

但是

All South Korean men must undergo chemical warfare training.

1.所有韩国男性都必须接受化学战训练。

South Korea actually has more biological and chemical weapons.

2.韩国实际上有更多的生化武器。

Yes, South Korea is the third largest biological/chemical industry country in the world after Russia and the United States, and has a large amount of deadly materials ready to arm at any time. According to the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, they are not "weapons", but in reality they can be made into weapons within weeks or even days. More importantly, compared to North Korea, which has a huge chemical industry, South Korea has the ability to produce these weapons on a faster scale.

是的，韩国是世界上仅次于俄罗斯和美国的第三大生物/化学工业国家，并且有大量的致命材料随时准备武装起来。根据《禁止化学武器公约》的规定，它们不是“武器”，但实际上它们可以在几周甚至几天内制成武器。更重要的是，与拥有庞大化学工业的朝鲜相比，韩国有能力以更快的速度大规模生产这些武器。

Finally, there are nuclear weapons. South Korea is protected by a nuclear umbrella, which basically means that whoever carries out a nuclear attack on a country within the umbrella will be subject to a nuclear attack by the United States.

最后是核武器。韩国受到核保护伞的保护，这基本上意味着谁对保护伞内的国家进行核攻击，美国就会对其进行核攻击。

Therefore, it is obvious which is stronger or weaker between North Korea and South Korea.

因而，朝鲜和韩国孰强孰弱显而易见。

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