气候变化背景下中国沿海地区灾害风险研究与应对思考

In the context of global climate change, extreme weather events and the concomitant natural disasters are becoming a primary risk restricting the socioeconomic development in coastal areas that are often highly urbanized. This study sets out to explore the new characteristics of natural hazards and disasters in the coastal areas of China against the backdrop of a changing climate. Major conclusions are as follows. First, the occurrences of extreme weather and climatic events are considerably uncertain. The climate and disasters are different across various temporal and spatial scales, and the components of the disaster risk system become more complicated. Second, in view of the new challenges brought by climate change, we suggest paying close attention to three issues in the future, including the change of temporal and spatial scales that are used to depict the disasters, the synergism of multi-disasters, and the effects of climate change and urbanization. Based on these, a new framework of disaster risk system is established to reflect the qualities of disasters in complex spatiotemporal contexts. Lastly, to develop more effective coping strategies for the climate and natural hazards and disasters in coastal areas, it is necessary to promote diversification of the disaster prevention system and enhance its robustness, and to strengthen the self-recovery capability of the social, economic, and ecological environments. Meanwhile, information sharing in multi-disaster management and risk sharing and transfer policies are also important for accommodating the negative impacts of extreme events and disasters coming with climate change.

Keywords： climate change ; urbanization ; disaster risk assessment ; risk framework ; coastal areas