澳网友：若澳大利亚大幅提高铁矿价格或禁止出口，中国受得了吗？

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近几年澳大利亚借助外界势力屡屡哄抬价格，坐收渔翁之利，更大兴反华议题，对此我们该如何面对？有相关人员表示，中国未来或许会停止从澳大利亚进口铁矿石。虽然此举在短期内会对国家的经济发展带来损失，但也会令澳大利亚的经济遭受重创。澳大利亚网友问：如果澳大利亚大幅提高铁矿石价格甚至禁止向中国出口，中国真的受得了吗？我们看看各国网友的观点。

问题

澳大利亚网友凯文?安道夫的回答

Most things in the world are not as simple as they seem. Australia is the largest supplier of iron ore to China. At the same time, China is also Australia's largest supplier of steel. This relationship shows that the relationship between the two sides is not so easy to resolve.

世界上大多数事情并不像看上去那么简单。澳大利亚是中国最大的铁矿石供应国。与此同时，中国也是澳大利亚最大的钢铁供应国。这种关系表明，双方的联系不是那么容易就能化解的。

China imports iron ore from Australia, which generates hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue annually, accounting for 70% of China's iron ore demand

中国从澳大利亚进口铁矿石，每年带来数千亿美元的收入，澳大利亚铁矿石占中国铁矿石需求的70%

China imports iron ore from Australia because it has a higher iron content and is easier to smelt, not because China does not have a source of iron ore.

By stopping the supply of iron ore to China, China can quickly extract iron ore from low-grade iron ore. It is estimated that there is no problem solving 50% of the problem, or causing a maximum shortage of 20-30% for China.

通过停止向中国供应铁矿石，中国可以迅速从低品位铁矿石中提取铁矿石，估计解决50%的问题是没有问题的，或者最多为中国造成20-30%的短缺。

Considering the current iron ore prices, the impact on China is not that significant.

考虑到目前的铁矿石价格，对中国的影响并没有那么大。

Currently, no other customer can provide the amount of iron ore required by the Chinese people. What do you think will happen to the price of iron ore once they develop additional diversified suppliers?

目前，没有其他客户能够提供中国人所需的铁矿石数量。一旦他们开发出额外的多元化供应商，你认为铁矿石价格会发生什么变化？

China may only purchase 30% of its current production from Australia and obtain more affordable deals due to overcapacity.

中国可能只会从澳大利亚购买目前产量的30%，并由于生产过剩而获得更实惠的交易。

"I think Australian miners will face a difficult decade or two because the Chinese people will not give up halfway, and they have the ability to build a terrible supply chain that other countries cannot imagine.".

我认为澳大利亚矿商将面临艰难的一二十年，因为中国人不会半途而废，他们有能力建立其他国家无法想象的可怕供应链。

Remember, China is the world's largest consumer of iron ore, more than twice the sum of the rest of the world in recent years. Australia's attempt to use iron ore to defeat China is somewhat beyond its means.

请记住，中国是世界上最大的铁矿石消费国，是近年来世界其他地区总和的两倍多。澳大利亚想利用铁矿石搞垮中国，未免有点不自量力。

海外网友约翰?哈德曼的回答

China is the largest buyer of iron ore on the planet, while Australia is the largest seller of iron ore. Therefore, in a commercial sense, there must be demand before there is supply. In the real world, buyers can choose from whom to buy products, and buyers choose first, rather than the seller deciding whether to sell to the buyer. In this case, China is the buyer and Australia is the seller. Therefore, if China stops buying, Australia will face some related issues.

中国是地球上最大的铁矿石买家，澳大利亚是地球上第一大铁矿石卖家。因此，从商业意义上讲，在有供应之前，必须先有需求。在现实世界中，买家可以选择从谁那里购买产品，买家首先选择，而不是卖家决定是否要卖给买家。在这种情况下，中国是买方，澳大利亚是卖方。因此，如果中国停止购买，澳大利亚将面临一些相关问题。

First of all, if Australia cuts off trade with China, Australia will be troubled by a large output of iron ore. As mentioned above, China is the largest buyer, and Australia will have to find other countries or other countries to absorb the iron ore previously purchased by China. If Australia cannot find another buyer or multiple buyers to replace/purchase the amount of iron ore that China has purchased in the past, then Australia's large inventory of iron ore will not be digested.

首先，如果澳大利亚断绝对华贸易，澳大利亚将被大量产出的铁矿石所困扰。如上所述，中国是最大的买家，澳大利亚将不得不寻找其他国家或其他国家来吸收中国之前购买的铁矿石。如果澳大利亚找不到另一个买家或多个买家来取代/购买中国过去购买的铁矿石数量，那么澳大利亚一大堆铁矿石的库存将无从消化。

Although it is still iron ore and will not deteriorate, it can be slowly retained and sold, but if this happens, the snowball effect will begin. As the company already has a large amount of unsold iron ore, there is no need to excavate new iron ore to replace existing inventory. Production will decline significantly. As production demand slows, the number of workers involved in iron ore production will be laid off because there is no longer a need to produce so much iron ore. Therefore, as workers are laid off/unemployment rates rise, housing income will decline, followed by a decrease in retail sales, service sales, and so on. Over time, this will affect Australia's GDP.

它虽然仍然是铁矿石，不会变质，可以慢慢保留和出售，可如果这种情况发生，滚雪球效应就会开始。由于该公司已经有大量未售出的铁矿石，因此不需要挖掘新的铁矿石来取代现有的库存。产量将大幅下降。随着生产需求的放缓，参与铁矿石生产的工人数量将被解雇，因为不再需要生产那么多铁矿石。因此，随着工人被解雇/失业率上升，住房收入将下降，随之而来的是零售额、服务销售等减少。随着时间的推移，这将影响澳大利亚的GDP。

Now, why should I bother to express my answer in a long and easy to understand way? Quite simply, because after "discussing" and reading so many Australians' responses to China's trade with Australia... most of them are optimistic about the Australian iron ore industry, so they believe it can be easily sold to other buyers because they have the best iron ore quality. Most people believe that there are ready made buyers lining up at the door to buy their iron ore.

现在，为什么我要不厌其烦地用一种长时间的、通俗易懂的方式来表达我的答案呢？很简单，因为在“讨论”并阅读了这么多澳大利亚人对中国与澳大利亚贸易的回应之后…他们中的大多数都对澳大利亚铁矿产业持乐观态度，因此他们认为可以很容易地将铁矿石出售给其他买家，因为他们拥有最好的铁矿石质量。大多数人认为有现成的买家在门口排队，要求购买他们的铁矿石。

The simple relationship/connection between the buyer and seller does not seem to support their view of things.. China is the world's largest manufacturing country. In addition, when your biggest trading partner cuts you, it means; The bilateral relationship between the two countries is deteriorating, and the impact in reality will collapse continuously like a domino. We are talking about trade worth more than $190 billion, as well as other income that China brings to the Australian economy, such as students plus their land and tourism income, and we will lose them.

买方和卖方之间的简单关系/联系似乎无法支撑他们对事物的看法。。中国是世界上最大的制造业国家。此外，当你最大的贸易伙伴裁掉你时，这意味着了；两国的双边关系走向恶化，现实中的影响也会像多米诺骨牌一样连续倒塌。我们谈论的是价值1900多亿美元的贸易，以及中国为澳大利亚经济带来的其他收入，比如学生加上他们的土地和旅游收入，我们将会失去他们。

In short, once China ends its shopping spree, good luck to Australia.

总之，一旦中国结束了购物狂欢，那就祝澳大利亚好运吧。

China has a very clear steel strategy:

中国有一套非常明显的钢铁战略：

[1] Develop the "Bridge and Road" initiative to connect almost all countries in the world through modern infrastructure based on Huawei equipment and the "Internet of Things" (roads, bridges, ports - using steel) and ITC (Information Technology and Communications).

[1] 制定“桥与路”倡议，通过基于华为设备和“物联网”的现代基础设施（道路、桥梁、港口-使用钢铁）和ITC（信息技术和通信）连接世界上几乎所有国家。

[2] Develop the economy and lift all citizens out of poverty, including modern housing relying on steel and public transportation relying on steel.

[2] 发展经济，使所有公民摆脱贫困，包括依赖钢铁的现代住房和依赖钢铁的公共交通。

[3] To defend against war traffickers such as the US military industrial complex, steel is used at its defense bases, including the South China Sea and selected bases.

[3] 为了抵御美国军工复合体这样的战争贩子，在其国防基地使用钢铁，包括南中国海和一些选定的基地。

[4] To reduce its carbon footprint, from now on, this must include producing steel using hydrogen with minimal coal.

[4] 为了减少其碳足迹，从现在开始，这必须包括通过使用氢气以最少的煤炭生产钢铁。

You may have noticed the importance of steel... You may also have noticed the importance of Huawei and the Internet of Things. Australia has also banned Huawei nationwide.

你可能已经注意到了钢铁的重要性…你可能也已经注意到华为和物联网的重要性。澳大利亚还在全国范围内禁了华为。

Therefore, in the face of Australia's unfriendliness, with the help of multinational companies such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, China will seek alternative supplies of various raw materials. At the same time, they will also purchase iron ore from Australia (because China and Australia have made great efforts to build related mines, railways, and ports), but they will seek to reduce coal procurement (because there are other suppliers nearby), And will guide some of its large number of STEM experts in the research and development of using hydrogen to produce steel. Unfortunately, our STEM experts will miss out on research and development work.

因此，面对澳大利亚的不友好，在必和必拓和力拓等跨国公司的帮助下，中国将寻找各种原材料的替代供应，与此同时，他们还将从澳大利亚购买铁矿石（因为中国和澳大利亚在建设相关的矿山、铁路和港口方面付出了巨大努力），但他们将寻求减少煤炭采购（因为附近还有其他供应商），并将指导其大量STEM专家中的一些人对使用氢气生产钢铁进行研发。遗憾的是，我们的STEM专家将错过研发工作。

At the same time, their B&R partners will be committed to supplying agricultural products to China and competing with us. Speaking of "us", our current main competitor for agricultural products is our powerful friend... The United States, under his guidance, foolishly opposed China. I think we were stabbed in the back by the United States.

与此同时，他们的B&R合作伙伴将致力于向中国供应农产品，与我们竞争。说到“我们”，我们目前农产品的主要竞争对手是我们的强大朋友…美国，在他的引导下傻傻地和中国作对，我觉得我们被美国背刺了一刀。

美国网友迈克尔?摩根的回答

Iron ore is not everything in the Australian economy, but it is indeed very important. "I am not opposed to Australia, and I do hope that this quarrel will eventually subside.".

铁矿石并不是澳大利亚经济的一切，但它确实非常重要。我并不反对澳大利亚，我确实希望这场争吵最终会平息。

But I also feel it necessary to point out that the logic of distance is bidirectional. China is a big demand country, while Australia is a big supply country. The close relationship between the two is inevitable and mutually beneficial.

但我也觉得有必要指出，距离的逻辑是双向的。中国是需求大国，而澳大利亚是供应大国，两者关系密切是必然的，也是互利的。

Now, even if other iron ore sources are farther away from China, they will also replace Australia. Conversely, what other major buyers are close enough to Australia to make up for the decline in Chinese demand? The map below shows the same linear distance from Port Hedland to Dalian (the main iron ore export route). In order to preemptively solve the Indian problem, it is worth noting that India itself is basically self-sufficient in iron ore and will only increase imports when domestic supply is disrupted. Perhaps Vietnam can step in to narrow the gap?

Although Australia does have the most developed iron ore railway and transportation infrastructure, China does have the most advanced transportation infrastructure to transport iron ore and its finished products, as well as steel mills that convert iron ore into useful final products.

虽然澳大利亚确实拥有最发达的铁矿石铁路和转运基础设施，但中国也确实拥有最先进的运输基础设施来运输铁矿石及其成品，以及将铁矿石转化为有用的最终产品的钢铁厂。

Finally, in the long run, will the development of more sources of supply such as Guinea ultimately shift the overall balance in favor of buyers? Iron ore supply can be expanded, but economic growth is difficult to achieve. This is detrimental to both China and Australia.

In terms of the overall impact of the mining industry on the Australian economy, a 2014 study by the Reserve Bank of Australia found that the mining boom of the previous decade (which coincided with the period of accelerated development by China due to its accession to the WTO) increased average household income by 13% and reduced the unemployment rate by approximately 1.25%. Therefore, although mining is not the only industry on which Australia relies, it has undoubtedly made a significant contribution to the extraordinary prosperity that Australia has enjoyed over the past few decades.

就采矿业对澳大利亚经济的总体影响而言，澳大利亚储备银行2014年的一项研究发现，前十年的采矿业繁荣（这一时期与中国因加入世贸组织而加速发展的时期重叠）使平均家庭收入提高了13%，失业率下降了约1.25%。因此，尽管采矿业不是澳大利亚唯一依赖的行业，它无疑为澳大利亚在过去几十年中所享有的非凡繁荣做出了重大贡献。

This study should also be reasonable, as it covers the "boom" stage of significant investment in mining. During the "steady state" phase, the economic impact is usually small due to reduced investment.

这项研究也应该是合理的，因为它涵盖了采矿业大量投资的“繁荣”阶段。在“稳态”阶段，由于投资减少，经济影响通常较小。

There is another important aspect of the value of mining and iron ore to the Australian economy. To some extent, China's economy can recover faster than the rest of the world, and exports such as iron ore and coal enable Australia to directly obtain this economic cushion during difficult economic times. During the 2008 global financial crisis and the recent COVID-19 crisis, we saw this impact. At that time, China's rebound speed exceeded that of other countries in the world. Therefore, even if other domestic economies in Australia were severely hit by COVID-19, iron ore and mining exports also increased significantly, making the largest contribution to GDP during this period.

矿业和铁矿石对澳大利亚经济的价值还有另一个重要方面。在某种程度上，中国经济能够比世界其他地区更快地复苏，铁矿石和煤炭等出口使澳大利亚在经济困难时期能够直接获得这种经济缓冲。在2008年全球金融危机期间，以及在最近的新冠肺炎危机期间，我们看到了这种影响，当时中国的反弹速度超过了世界其他国家。因此，即使澳大利亚国内其他经济体受到新冠肺炎的严重打击，铁矿石和矿业出口也大幅增长，在这一时期对GDP总额的贡献最大。

海外专家沃夫冈的回答

The two countries have not yet reached the point of completely severing diplomatic and economic relations, so the purchase agreement previously signed will continue to be implemented.

1.两国尚未达到完全断绝外交和经贸关系的地步，因此之前签署的购买协议将继续执行。

However, China is stepping up efforts to expand other sources of iron ore, and is importing iron ore from Russia and Africa. Earlier this year, the first batch of iron ore was shipped to China from the port of Sierra Leone and was taken from the Tongcollili mine, which was restarted after being owned by China in 2020. Peter O'Connor, senior metals and mining analyst at Shaw and Partners, an Australian investment company, said that this dependency could change significantly by 2025.

According to market views, from a long-term trend, iron ore prices are expected to fall to around $60 per ton. In my personal opinion, China will establish a model for purchasing iron ore in the following ways:

根据市场观点，从长期趋势来看，铁矿石价格预计将降至每吨60美元左右。在我个人看来，中国将建立一种以下面这种方式采购铁矿石的模式：

1. A portion of Africa's iron ore supply;

1.非洲铁矿石供应一部分；

2. Vale of Brazil supplies a portion of this, which will account for 50% of China's demand;

2，巴西淡水河谷供应其中一部分，这将占中国需求的50%；

3. Low grade iron ore from China and other countries has been selectively resolved in part. The selected iron ore will increase costs, but if the price of iron ore is too high, it is still very cost-effective, which actually accounts for 30% of China's current demand

As part of the supply, Australia will also be an alternative. However, supply should be reduced from the current 70% to less than 20%, possibly even lower.

4.作为供应的一部分，澳大利亚也将是一个替代方案。但是，供应应该从目前的70%减少到20%以下，甚至可能更低。

The key is that this Chinese procurement model will not take away supply from other markets. In other words, there will be no other new market demand to make up for the shortage of Chinese purchases from Australia. China's continued supply to the international market will continue to squeeze the capacity of other steel mills in the world.

关键是，这种中国采购模式不会夺走其他市场的供应。也就是说，不会出现其他新的市场需求来弥补中国从澳大利亚购买的短缺。中国对国际市场的持续供应将继续挤压世界其他钢铁厂的产能。

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