Ukrainians Were Likely Behind Kremlin Drone Attack, U.S. Officials Say

These operate with varying levels of professionalism and oversight, and they sometimes compete for resources and attention within the Ukrainian system. U.S. officials are not sure how closely, if at all, these units coordinate their activities with each other, either by design — as part of a system of compartmentalization to prevent Russian moles from learning about their operations — or because of mistrust among the services, or both.

Some U.S. officials initially considered the possibility that the Kremlin drone attack might have been carried out by the Russian government in a “false flag” operation designed to provide Moscow with a pretext to escalate the conflict.

But after the attack, the United States intercepted communications in which Russian officials were overheard discussing the incident and the findings of Moscow’s preliminary investigation into what took place. In those internal discussions, Russian officials seemed surprised by the drone intrusion and blamed Ukraine. U.S. officials said this intelligence helped convince them that the attack was not carried out by the Russians.

“Watching how the Kremlin has responded suggests to me this was an embarrassment and surprise for them, and not a deliberate false flag,” said Dara Massicot, a military analyst at RAND, referring to the drone attack. “The strikes also undermine the perceptions of Moscow’s air space surveillance capabilities and that the Kremlin is secure — these are important perceptions they would like to maintain.”

The United States also intercepted Ukrainian conversations in which officials said they believed that their country was responsible for the attack. But these officials appeared to have no knowledge of who within the Ukrainian system might have planned or carried it out.