美版知乎：俄罗斯退出《削减战略武器条约》，我很担心会爆发核战争，这种可能性大吗

I’m terrified of a nuclear war now that Russia has paused the treaty. What do you think the chances are now?

俄罗斯退出《削减战略武器条约》，我很担心会爆发核战争。你觉得这种可能性大吗？

以下是Quora网友的评论：

Iniyari Illenyia

Zero. At most, Putin is sitting on one—count them, ONE—still-functioning nuclear warhead; which he can’t use, because it won't accomplish anything except to get Russia glassed by the innumerable, very functioning warheads possessed by the rest of the world.

这种可能性是零。普京现在就坐拥一枚，数清楚哈，就只有一枚还能使用的核弹头；但他不敢启用这枚核弹头，因为它除了让俄罗斯被其他国家用不计其数、功能强大的弹头炸得稀碎之外，一点用也没有。

Tech Knowledge

It is difficult to say exactly what the chances are of a nuclear war, but the chances are certainly higher now that the treaty has been paused. The best way to reduce the risk of a nuclear war is to engage in meaningful dialogue between the countries involved in order to reduce tensions and to find a way forward that is acceptable to both sides.

发生核战争的可能性究竟有多大，真的不好说，但因为条约暂时搁置，这种可能性肯定要比原先高了。减少核战争风险的最好办法是呼吁有关国家进行有意义的对话，缓解紧张局势，找到双方都能接受的解决之道。

Marc Weber

Russia would be nuked, too. Other Quora posts clearly said there are two big cities in Russia. easy target. And that bombing infrastructure would be enough to cause chaos. How much Russia is left once you start bombing ? So why should Russia do it. If Russua had to plan fighting the world it would have prepared to target infrastructure all over Europe like electricity. Didn’t happen. I feared that at the begng. As terrified as you are the Russians are as well.

俄罗斯一样会遭受核打击。Quora上的其他帖子里说得很清楚，俄罗斯有两个大城市呐。目标太清楚了。只要炸掉基础设施就足以引发骚乱。一旦开始轰炸，俄罗斯还能剩下什么呢？所以俄罗斯为什么要这么做呢？如果俄罗斯被迫和全世界作战，它会做好准备瞄准整个欧洲的基础设施，比如电力设施。可是这只是如果的事。我原来也挺担心。和你一样瑟瑟发抖的还有俄罗斯人。

Lighthouse

Why be scared? If no afterlife, nothing to worry about.

the sun doesn’t stay up forever. It does its work, there is a beautiful sunset, and then it’s over. that’s it. You are a sunset. Everything is. Whether the sun comes up again or not is a matter for tomorrow.

为什么要害怕呢？如果没有来世，压根没什么好担心的。

日升日落总有定时。太阳完成了它一天的使命，用美丽的日落来结束一天。这就是自然规律。你也是落日。天下所有事情都是。太阳会不会再次升起，那就是明天的事了。

Done with the Bullshit?

Since you are not a country, nor a head of a collective of over 50 people(I am assuming), there is no need to be terrified. Research relevant information, and you will be able to produce a desired outcome.

I think the chances are moderate at present.

既然你不是一个国家，也不是一个超过50人的集体的首脑(我假设)，你根本没有必要害怕。研究研究相关的信息，你就能得到你想要的答案。

我认为目前这种可能性不大。

Mario 73

The chances are getting higher and higher. If you live in the United States, you should do something to protest against the mad men (like Biden, Kamala, Blinken and so on) that are leading your country, and NATO. Because we are VERY lucky, for now, that on the other side there is a considerate person, who don’t go off the rails despite the provocations and lies of NATO (just imagine the opposite, Russian weapons at the borders of Meco). Yes, I mean Vladimir Putin. Not convinced? Wait for who will come after him…

这种可能性越来越大了。如果你住在美国，你应该做点什么来抗议你们国家和北约的疯子领导(比如拜登、卡玛拉、布林肯等等)。因为我们非常幸运，身边还有个体贴的人，面对北约的挑衅和谎言也不会出轨(想象一下如果事情反过来，俄罗斯在墨西哥边境部署了武器会怎样)。是的，我说的正是弗拉基米尔·普京。是不是一时接受不了？看看谁来接他的班吧，拭目以待……

J Mcc

Your reaction while understandable is precisely the reaction that the Kremlin is ho for from NATO and US. However, they are not intimidated by this rethoric anymore. Too much is at stake. We cannot allow Russia to win in Ukraine. The only acceptable outcome is Ukraine takes back all that was stolen including Crimea. It is important for the rest of the world to see that aggression will not be rewarded in any small way. China is watching and will take its lead from the outcome of this war. If Russia can take Ukraine then China can take Taiwan. That would be a disaster for the whole world.

你的反应无可厚非，但这正是克里姆林宫希望看到的北约和美国的反应。但他们才不怕呢。风险太大了。我们不会允许俄罗斯在俄乌战争中获胜。我们最多只能接受乌克兰收回所有被抢走的东西，包括克里米亚。重要的是，我们要让其他国家都看看，侵略别国不会有任何好下场。中国正在密切关注这场战争的结果。如果俄罗斯能拿下乌克兰，那么中国就能收复台湾地区。这对整个世界来说都将是一场灾难。

Done with the Bullshit?

Why? Seriously, this is nothing more than Putin getting his panties in a twist because Biden got to Kyiv before he did. Russia pulling out of SMART is the dumbest move it could ever feasibly make. Treaties like SMART benefit the weaker power. Which, in this case, is Russia. Russia cannot compete with a United States which is building up a large number of nukes, as we have far better production capability. Not only that, this is bad for China, Russia’s only real ally, as the United States would no longer be under SMART’s restrictions, meaning the United States could widen the nuclear capacity gap between the two nations.

为什么呢？说真的，这有啥好担心的，不过是普京因为拜登比他早到达基辅而发火罢了。俄罗斯退出《削减战略武器条约》是它可能做过的最愚蠢的举动。《削减战略武器条约》这样的条约是可以让弱国受益的。而这里说得正是俄罗斯。俄罗斯无法跟正在大规模制造核武器的美国竞争，因为我们的生产能力要强许多。不仅如此，这对俄罗斯唯一真正的盟友中国也十分不利，美国不再受到《削减战略武器条约》的限制，这意味着美国可以毫无顾忌地扩大两国的核武差距。

Raviechandra Bulusu

All nations having nuclear arsenal know their responsibilities to the world.

All countries have realised that their nuclear bombs are only there for stop wars as a deterrence, certainly NOT for using them.

No need to fear now, from big countries like China,Russia, and US.,etc.

The nuclear armed countries like North Korea, Pakistan are the ones, which the world need to be afraid of.

所有拥有核武库的国家都知道他们对全世界所担负的责任。

所有国家都意识到，他们的核弹只能作为威慑，阻止战争，而绝对不会使用它们。

现在无需担心中国、俄罗斯和美国这些大国。

朝鲜、巴基斯坦这几个拥有核武器的国家，才是全世界都要忌惮担心的国家。

Michal Šturc

Lower than before, because that’s how game theory works. And game theory is roughly as important part of nuclear deterrence as nuclear engineering.

In every fight, the side that strikes first has an advantage - therefore, signalling your intention to attack and giving your opponent time to prepare or strike first is counterproductive. Thus, vehemently threatening to attack is always a bluff.

这种可能性要比以前低，这就是博弈论的效果。博弈论在核威慑和核武器建造中一样重要。

在战斗中，率先出击的一方往往占据优势——因此，亮明你的攻击意图，给对手留下准备时间或让对手率先出击，这就适得其反了。所以，凡是大声嚷嚷威胁动手的，都是虚张声势。

Imagine you want to kill a guy in a bar. You know he’s got a knife and doesn’t mess around in a fight. You have a knife, too, but you know that your chances in a fair fight are about 50/50 for the first blood. Therefore, your best option is to shank him from behind. This means that if you really mean to kill him, you’ll be quiet about it until you strike - and the same calculation holds true for him, too. Therefore, if you see him boasting and waving his knife, you know he isn’t going to attack you, because that would be the most stupid way of doing it.

想象一下，如果你想在酒吧里杀一个人。你知道他手里有刀，从来都是手起刀落绝不啰嗦。你自己手里也有刀，但你很清楚，在一场公平的战斗中你们的胜率都是50/50。所以你最好的做法是从背后捅他一刀。这就意味着如果你真的想杀他，在出手前都要始终保持沉默——这个方法对他也一样适用。所以如果你看到他咋咋呼呼舞着刀，你就知道他是不打算杀你的，因为那是最愚蠢的做法。

Mats Andersson

Arguably, lower than before.

If you look at what Putin actually said, it was that he was “suspending” the treaty. But that doesn’t mean a whole lot. The treaty was about limiting the number of nuclear weapons, not about e.g. a promise not to use them or whatever. And several provisions in the treaty had already been paused, to no big fanfare.

可以说，可能性比以前要低。

我们看看普京具体说了什么，他只是“暂停”执行该条约而已，并没有什么太要紧的。这个条约意在限制核武器数量，而非承诺不使用核武器。条约中的几项条款早已失效，也没有引起太大的轰动。

And he didn’t say he’d build new nuclear weapons. He actually said he would still abide by the terms, until such a time that the US stops abiding by them, which frankly is not unreasonable. He definitely said nothing at all about using any nuclear weapons.

普京并没有说俄罗斯会制造新的核武器。实际上，他说的是如果美国遵守这些条款，俄罗斯也一样会遵守，坦率地说，这么说并非不可理喻。他绝对没有说过俄罗斯要使用核武器。

Richard Taylor

From what I have gathered from the news and media, Russia has not been following the treaty terms very well for some time anyway! So if he has paused Russia from the treaty there is not much difference from then and now! We have to remember that Russia has been flaunting nuclear arms since the war began! Red lines have been crossed and nothing has happened. So I would assume that this is just another ploy from Putin to stop NATO from arming Ukraine any further! However this is just my oion, who knows with Russia!

根据我从新闻和媒体了解到的信息来看，俄罗斯很早之前就不再遵守该条约的条款了！所以，如果他叫停了条约，跟现在其实并没有太大区别！我们必须牢记，自战争爆发以来，俄罗斯一直在卖弄自己拥有核武器！俄罗斯狠踩红线，但没有实际行动。所以我认为这只是普京阻止北约进一步武装乌克兰的计策！不过这只是我的个人观点，俄罗斯可是让人看不透。

Adrian Rodgers

Oh, that surprised me a tad you know. Threats of a nuclear strike by Russia usually appear a little later in the week than Tuesdays.

I wonder why this week's threat came early and if they’ll revert to the usual schedule next week? I suppose it all might depend on whether they have anything else to report. Who knows?

哦，这多少让我有点吃惊。俄罗斯通常会在每周二之后发布核武威胁。

我觉得奇怪，为什么这周的威胁提前了呢，下周会不会恢复正常的时间表？也许这取决于他们是不是还有其他事情要报道。天知道呢？

Nikolaos Dimitropoulos

Chances are pretty much what they were before.

What it basically means is that the core fundamental understanding that drove all diplomatic relations between US and Russia (ever since USSR) is effectively over.

It also means the relations between the two have reached a level of hostility we haven’t seen for at least 40 years if not more.

可能性跟以前差不多吧。

这基本意味着推动美国和俄罗斯(自苏联以来)所有外交关系的核心的基本谅解已经不复存在。

这也意味着两国之间的关系已经恶化到至少40年都未曾达到的敌对程度。

Ilya Kuzmin

Russia has paused the treaty only because U.S. has violated it by not letting Russian inspectors in due to illegal sanctions and other political nonsense U.S. government has been pursuing. Russian pausing of the treaty is just statement of fact that Russia is now officially prohibits any sort of US inspectors on Russian soil before US will start to behave.

I don’t think it’s a ring that nuclear war is going to start anytime soon - because for that Russian souvereignty first should be violated (or Russia shall be attacked by WMD first). As long as NATO won’t help Ukraine actually to conquer these 4 regions that voted to join Russia in free de ocratic referendums - there won’t be any escalation into nuclear area.

On the other hand it’s an open sign for the international community to begin diplomatic processes to force the U.S. to let international inspectors (obligatory including Russian ones) to its nuclear facilities.

俄罗斯暂停该条约的唯一原因是美国先违反了该条约。因为美国政府一直咬死不放的非法制裁和其他政治方面的无稽之谈，美国不让俄罗斯核查人员进入美国领土。俄罗斯暂停该条约只是声明了一个事实，即在美国学会遵守规则之前，俄罗斯正式禁止任何美国核查人员进入俄罗斯领土。

我认为核战争不会立即爆发，因为俄罗斯的主权会率先受到侵犯，俄罗斯也可能会率先遭受大规模杀伤性武器的攻击。只要北约不帮助乌克兰占领这四个在公投中投票加入俄罗斯的地区，战争就不会升级到核战级别。

另一方面，这是一个公开的信号，国际社会应该开始进入外交程序，迫使美国允许国际核查人员(包括俄罗斯的核查人员)进入美国的核设施进行核查。

Mike Minucci

The chances are the same as before. Very low. Russia wasn’t adhering to the terms of the treaty in the first place. Pausing it doesn’t change anything. Putin may seem unhinged but he knows if he fires one tactical nuclear missile into Ukraine his dream of a re-unified Soviet Union will be dead forever.

这个可能性和以前一样，非常低。俄罗斯最初也并没有遵守该条约的条款。现在俄罗斯叫停条约，也不会改变任何局面。普京可能看起来精神失常，但他还是非常清楚，如果他真的向乌克兰发射战术核导弹，他重新统一苏联的梦想就将永远破灭。