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Base Time: Wed 17 Jul 2024 00 UTC T+96 Valid time: Sun 21 Jul 2024 00 UTC (T+96)
Ensemble forecasts explained One 'ensemble forecast' consists of 101 separate forecasts made by the same computer model, all activated from the same starting time. The starting conditions for each member of the ensemble are slightly different, and physical parameter values used also differ slightly. The differences between these ensemble members tend to grow as the forecasts progress, that is as the forecast lead time increases. The black lines represent the mean of all the ensemble forecasts for a given time, while the shading indicates the spread. See the middle icon at the bottom right for the colour scale.
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