AMAP评估报告解读：北极气候变化及其影响的新认识

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program （AMAP） of the Arctic Council released “Arctic climate change update 2021： key trends and impacts” in May 2021. The report presented that near-surface air warming in the Arctic has been three times greater than the global mean over the past 49 years （1971—2019）， resulting in profound changes in Arctic precipitation， sea ice， land ice， permafrost， and snow cover. Glacial ablation was intensifying. Sea ice continued to decline in the Arctic other than the Bering Sea， which is one of the causes of mid-latitude extreme weather and climate events. Extreme events （extreme precipitation， extreme heat events， extreme cold events， and extreme wildfires） occurred frequently in the Arctic， significantly affecting Arctic ecosystems and Arctic communities. The latest climate models and scenarios projected that the Arctic Ocean will be free of sea ice in September for the first time， as early as 2040， and that no sea ice in summer will be the new norm by 2050. Unfortunately， the COVID-19 epidemic has caused many Arctic studies to be postponed or canceled， resulting in gaps in datasets in 2020—2021 including some key indicators. Climate warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions has been ranked as the top global environmental problem， and the Arctic amplification of climate change makes the Arctic one of the most dramatic areas of near-surface air temperature increasing， making the Arctic more vulnerable to climate change. Based on Arctic climate change assessment report of AMAP， this paper interprets the change characteristics of climate and cryospheric elements of the Arctic， the change characteristics of Arctic extreme events， and the impacts of Arctic ecosystem and social and economic development. The results show that the Arctic climate is accelerating to a warmer and wetter state， and the instability of Arctic environmental elements is increasing， which has profound impacts on the Arctic ecosystem and economic and social development. To date， the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to increase， and climate warming will continue. There is an urgent need to strengthen the monitoring and prediction of recent Arctic climate change and extreme events， and improve the ability to cope with the adverse effects of Arctic climate change. The transition towards a ecologically resilient state is the focus of Arctic climate change research in the future.

Keywords： Arctic ; climate change ; sea ice ; snow cover ; AMAP