中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

您所在的位置：网站首页 › 全球气候变暖的四大原因是什么 › 中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

2024-07-10 00:19| 来源: 网络整理| 查看: 265

近百年来,全球气候变暖趋势越来越明显,地表平均温度上升了0.74℃,而近50 a来温度上升速率更是达到了0.13℃/10 a(IPCC, 2013)。气候变化对自然环境以及人类的生产与生活活动都产生了重要影响,其中对生物物候的影响尤为明显。从广义上说,物候是指生物长期适应气候条件下的周期性变化,并形成与此相适应的生长发育规律;狭义上讲,物候是指植物在自己生长阶段内,随气候的季节性变化而产生萌芽、开花等规律性变化的自然现象(方修琦等, 2002)。物候现象可以客观反映植物生长过程中对外界气候、生态环境条件的响应及适应性(Craufurd et al, 2009; Diskin et al, 2012),具体表现为植物生育期的提前、推迟以及生育阶段的延长、缩短等。物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,是气候变化研究不可或缺的指示标志。气候变暖通常会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,相关研究指出气温升高尤其是春季平均气温的升高对于冬小麦抽穗期与开花期影响极为显著,德国、澳大利亚、阿根廷以及美国大平原等地的冬小麦抽穗期和开花期均有提前(Hu et al, 2005; Sadras et al, 2006; Eyshi et al, 2015)。Chmielewski等(2004)对德国1961—2000年苹果、玉米等作物的拔节期和开花期等生育期进行分析,结果表明,气温升高导致作物生育期均呈提前趋势,早春时节的物候活动变化最为显著。Nicole等(2010)对德国20种多年生作物和单年生作物的物候进行对比研究,发现多年生作物对春季平均气温变化的响应比单年生作物更显著。Oteros等(2015)统计了西班牙1986—2010年燕麦、小麦等冬播作物以及玉米等夏播作物的主要物候变化趋势,发现冬播作物春季生育期提前,而夏播作物生育期变化较小。巴基斯坦主要作物(玉米、棉花、油菜和甘蔗等)物候对气候响应的相关研究指出,气候变化决定了作物生育期的变化趋势,而品种更新和播种期的调整则抵消了14%~30%的气候变化对生育期的影响(Ahmad et al, 2016; Abbas et al, 2017; Ahmad S, Abbas G et al, 2017; Ahmad S, Abbas Q et al, 2017)。在中国,通过利用长期观测资料系统分析全国各气候区小麦和玉米物候变化的时空特征,发现抽穗期和成熟期提前,营养生长期缩短,但生殖生长期延长(Tao et al, 2012; Tao, Zhang, Zhang et al, 2014)。Zhang等(2014)研究了中国水稻物候变化的时空特征及其与气候变化、播种期和品种等农业管理措施之间的关系,发现尽管气候增暖导致生长期缩短,但水稻(晚稻例外)品种更替使水稻生长期延长。

综上所述,气候变化背景下,作物物候产生了显著的变化。作物物候的变化势必会影响作物光合作用产物的积累,最终表现为作物产量的变化。因此,作物物候研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业生产的安全都极为关键。在现阶段,国内外对作物物候研究逐渐增多,研究层次也在逐渐深入。本文综述了全球气候变暖背景条件下中国近几十年来主要农作物的物候变化状况,分析了物候变化规律特征,可为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据。

1 作物物候变化的主要研究方法

一般来讲,对作物物候的研究主要通过田间试验观测、统计分析、模型模拟以及遥感反演等方法,下面分别对4种方法进行简单介绍和评价。

1.1 田间试验观测方法

通常情况下,作物物候期需要实地观测才能得到原始数据。因此,田间定位试验就成为研究作物物候变化最直观的方法。田间试验方法主要涉及改变播种期、改变生长环境(以改变温度条件为主)以及改变作物品种等几个方面。在中国,全国范围内多达778个农业气象站从20世纪80年代就开始对各区域主要作物物候进行了观测记录,其观测数据为后来多数科学家分析作物物候变化趋势和特征奠定了数据基础(Tao et al, 2012; Tao, Zhang, Xiao et al, 2014)。另外,部分研究者还通过田间控制实验来研究不同因素对作物物候的影响。张彬等(2010)、陈金等(2010)和张鑫等(2014)在江苏省采用开放式或被动式增温系统对水稻和小麦进行夜间增温试验,来揭示夜间温度升高对水稻和小麦生育期的影响。杨洪宾等(2009)和张凯等(2012)分别通过设置不同播种期处理试验来研究播种期对小麦生育期变化的影响。Wang等(2016)于2012—2014年在中国农业大学吴桥试验站进行了夏玉米品种更换试验,通过种植20世纪50、70、90年代以及21世纪前10年等4个时期的不同夏玉米品种来研究品种变化情况下夏玉米生育期的变化特征。

田间试验所得到的观测数据是作物物候研究的第一手资料,比较精确可靠。但是,田间观测试验通常情况下需要耗费大量人力、财力、物力和时间,不适合作为作物物候长期研究的方法。此外,田间试验方法在区分和量化气候、品种和播种期等不同因素对作物物候的影响时存在一定的困难,试验设计需要不断完善才能获得较高精度的结果。

1.2 统计分析方法

统计分析方法是通过对一段时间内作物物候的变化趋势及其影响因素的相关关系进行分析,从而得到作物生育期变化特征的研究方法。统计分析方法可以获取大范围、长周期的作物物候变化趋势,是研究作物物候变化最常用的方法。通常情况下,田间试验观测方法、模型模拟方法和遥感反演方法的使用均要与统计方法相结合。Tao等(2012)利用线性回归分析和皮尔森相关系数分析对中国小麦种植区内的冬小麦和春小麦的生育期变化趋势以及生育期变化与生育阶段内的平均温度和ATDU(accumulated thermal development unit, 表示品种的热量需求、春化作用需求和光周期敏感度等特性)的相关性进行了深入研究。Li等(2014)利用相似统计分析方法对东北地区的玉米物候变化特征进行了研究。一般而言,统计数据显示的作物物候变化是气候变化、作物管理措施调整等多种因素综合影响下的变化,为了研究各影响因子对作物物候影响的具体程度,普遍采用一阶差分法来量化区别气候与作物管理措施对作物生育期的影响(Lobell et al, 2005; Verón et al, 2015)。Liu等(2018)对小麦物候的研究中利用一阶差分法建立经验公式如下：

Tphe,cli=Stem×Ttem+Spre×Tpre+Sssd×Tssd(1)

Tphe,man=Tphe-Tphe,cli(2)

式中： Tphe,cli表示单纯气候变化下生育期或生育阶段长度的变化趋势; Stem、 Spre、 Sssd分别表示小麦物候对温度、降水和日照时数的响应程度; Ttem、 Tpre、 Tssd分别表示相应生育期内平均温度、累积降水量、累积日照时数的变化趋势; Tphe,man表示单纯作物管理措施调整情况下生育期或生育阶段长度的变化趋势; Tphe表示小麦物候变化的观测趋势。

Zhang等(2014)通过计算中国主要水稻种植区内不同生育期(营养生长期、生殖生长期和全生育期)水稻的ATDU,根据1981年水稻各生育阶段的ATDU并结合1981—2009年水稻的移栽期估算了历年的水稻抽穗期和成熟期,获得单纯气候变化影响下的水稻生育期变化结果,水稻生育期观测数据结果与单纯气候变化影响下的结果之间的差值就是单纯品种更新影响下的水稻生育期变化结果。Mo等(2016)用上述方法对黄土高原的春小麦和夏玉米的生育期进行了研究。作物各生育阶段光热需求不仅可以通过计算ATDU得到,也可以通过计算生长度日(Growing degree days, GDD)得到(Grigorieva et al, 2010, Hu et al, 2015)。Hu等(2017)根据Gao等(1992)的研究方法获取了水稻生育期GDD参考值,然后基于GDD参考值计算历年水稻参考生育期,最后利用经验公式量化气候、品种以及播种期对水稻物候的影响。

统计分析方法是作物物候研究中应用最普遍的一种研究方法,可操作性强,研究周期长,范围广,信息量大,是了解历史气候背景下作物物候变化最有效的研究方法。相比于作物模型,统计模型所需数据更为简单,便于获取,但机理性不足,对许多影响因素考虑不充分,在量化影响因素作用时容易相互混淆。同时,统计模型外推效果较差,在预测未来气候情景下作物物候的变化趋势方面有很大局限性。

1.3 模型模拟方法

作物机理模型,是指对作物的生长、发育以及产量形成的过程和对环境反应能进行定量和动态描述的一种计算机模拟程序(李军, 1997),它可以在已有研究资料基础上对在多种模拟条件下的作物生长情况进行模拟,预测未知风险,优化农业资源管理措施。早在20世纪60年代后期,荷兰、美国等国就已经开始对作物模型进行开发研究,并开发出了一些较为单一的基础作物模型;之后,英国、澳大利亚等国也对作物模型进行了开发利用。经过几十年的发展,作物模型发展趋于完善,涌现出很多功能齐全、结构复杂的作物模型,例如澳大利亚的APSIM模型和美国的DSSAT模型等。

Wang等(2013)、He等(2015)和Xiao, Tao等(2016)利用APSIM模型分别对华北平原、黄土高原冬小麦和北方春小麦物候变化驱动因子进行归因研究。Wang X等(2017)对利用ORCHIDEE-crop模型量化了气候变化和移栽期调整对水稻生育期的影响。Liu L等(2012, 2013)利用RiceGrow模型设置了2种模拟试验,针对对象为气候因子和品种类型,移栽期等管理措施保持同一水平。

作物模型机理性很强,对作物生长影响因素考虑比较充分,可以定量描述不同气候因子作用,同时外推效果好,预测未来作物产量可信度较高。但作物模型结构复杂,需要大量的作物生长发育过程、土壤条件以及管理措施等详细输入数据,作物模型本地化处理有一定难度。同时,作物模型输入数据主要为单点数据,应用于区域尺度上的代表性不足。本土化处理和研究尺度代表性等是作物模型应用中不可避免的问题,需要进一步研究讨论。

1.4 遥感反演方法

通常情况下,田间试验法、统计分析法以及模型模拟法等主要基于站点研究尺度,对于区域的物候变化差异反映存在一定偏差,而遥感反演方法则可以通过遥感数据提取作物物候期进行大范围研究,从而更好地反映区域尺度上作物物候变化的特征和规律。一般而言,遥感反演方法主要是基于归一化植被指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI)数据提取作物物候期的方法。NDVI计算公式为：

NDVI=(Bnir-Bred)/(Bnir+Bred)(3)

式中： Bnir、 Bred分别为近红外波段、红光波段的反射值。

Fang等(2005)利用NOAA/AVHRR的MVC NDVI数据提取了华北平原1982—2000年冬小麦的出苗期和收获期,结果表明该方法在冬小麦生育期提取上具有较好的适用性。Cong等(2013)基于GIMMS3g NDVI数据汇总分析了5种方法提取的中国春季生长作物返青期,由此获得更为精确合理的研究结果。Wang S等(2017)基于NOAA/AVHRR的GIMMS3g NDVI数据和改进的返青期提取算法提取了华北平原1982—2013年冬小麦的返青期,验证表明提取结果拥有较高的精度。Liu Z等(2017)对比分析了基于GIMMS3g NDVI和SPOT-VGT NDVI数据4种返青期提取方法所提取结果的可靠度,研究表明基于SPOT-VGT NDVI数据的返青期提取结果较基于GIMMS3g NDVI数据的提取结果相关性更好,准确度更高。

遥感反演方法突破了其他几种方法以站点研究为主的限制,可以有效反映大范围区域作物物候变化的整体状况。但遥感反演方法对地面作物的区分要求较高,特征不明显的作物生育期很难与其他作物生育期区分开,例如对冬小麦等春季生长作物生育期的提取集中在越冬返青期,该时期春季作物提取较易。

2 中国典型作物物候的响应与适应

小麦、玉米和水稻是中国种植的主要粮食作物。因此,本文的研究重点集中在小麦、玉米和水稻三大粮食作物物候变化上。此外,对棉花、大豆等经济作物物候变化也有阐述。

2.1 小麦物候的响应与适应

小麦是中国三大粮食作物之一,种植范围广,面积大,产量高(中国农业年鉴编辑委员会, 2011)。根据播种时间的差异,全国小麦种植类型主要分为春小麦和冬小麦,春小麦主产区与冬小麦主产区大致以长城为界,长城以北为春小麦,长城以南为冬小麦。小麦物候研究集中在播种期、出苗期、抽穗期、开花期、成熟期等生育期以及营养生长期(播种期/出苗期至抽穗期/开花期)、生殖生长期(抽穗期/开花期至成熟期)和全生育期(播种期/出苗期至成熟期)等生育阶段(表1)。在区域尺度上,华北平原地区冬小麦物候研究居多,其次是西北地区。华北平原冬小麦物候变化特征为：播种期/出苗期推迟,抽穗期/开花期以及成熟期提前,营养生长期与全生育期缩短,而生殖生长期延长。华北平原冬小麦物候变化主要受气候变暖的影响,气温升高加快了小麦生长发育速度,缩短了小麦生育期,为了保证小麦产量而调整农业管理措施,最终导致营养生长期缩短,生殖生长期延长(Tao et al, 2013; Li et al, 2016; Tao et al, 2017)。西北地区冬小麦物候变化特征研究结果差异较大,这可能主要与品种变化有关。在品种保持不变的情况下,气温升高、降水减少导致冬小麦播种期、开花期与成熟期推迟,全生育期缩短(Xiao et al, 2008);在气候变暖与作物品种更换共同作用下,冬小麦播种期、出苗期分别推迟1.2 d/10 a、1.3 d/10 a,开花期、成熟期提前3.1 d/10 a和3.7 d/10 a,全生育期和营养生长期分别缩短4.3 d/10 a、5.0 d/10 a,生殖生长期则延长0.7 d/10 a,通过作物模型模拟研究表明,单纯气候变化情况下小麦生育期变化更为显著,这表明晚播和小麦品种更换一定程度上抵消了气候变化对小麦生育期的影响(He et al, 2015)。

Tab.1 表1

表1 中国小麦物候变化特征及驱动因子

Tab.1 Characteristics of change and driving factors of wheat phenology in China

分布区物候变化驱动因子文献全国春小麦/冬小麦种植区1981—2009年,40%站点春/冬小麦HD和MD显著提前,30%站点WGP和VGP显著缩短,60%站点RGP显著延长平均气温升高导致生育期提前,WGP和VGP缩短,品种变化延长RGP,日照长度缩短延长VGPTao et al, 2012; Tao, Zhang, Xiao et al, 20141980—2009年,冬小麦HD提前12.4 d/10 a,MD提前天数少于HD,VGP缩短,RGP延长6 d/10 a,WGP缩短11.3 d/10 a气候变暖导致生育期变化Xiao et al, 20151981—2010年,春/冬小麦平均SD和EMD推迟,平均AD和MD提前,VGP与WGP缩短,RGP延长气候变暖导致春/冬小麦VGP和WGP缩短,RGP延长;品种变化导致小麦变化与观测结果趋势基本一致Liu et al, 2018北部地区2001—2009年,冬小麦EMD和MD推迟,HD提前,WGP与VGP缩短,RGP延长品种保持不变,气候变暖为主要影响因子高辉明等, 20131980—2009年,春小麦AD和MD分别提前1.8 d/10 a、1.7 d/10 a,VGP和WGP分别缩短2.1 d/10 a和1.9 d/10 a,RGP延长0.2 d/10 a气候变暖导致生育期提前,生长阶段缩短,品种更新和推迟播种期则一定程度上抵消了气候变暖的影响Xiao, Tao et al, 2016西北半干旱区1981—2005年,冬小麦SD、ELD、AD、MD分别推迟0.3~0.4 d/a、0~0.2 d/a、0.3 d/a、0.2~0.4 d/a,WGP缩短0.6~1.3 d/a气温升高,降水减少导致生育期缩短Xiao et al, 20081981—2009年,冬小麦SD、EMD推迟,AD、MD提前;WGP、VGP缩短,RGP延长气候变暖导致生育期变化,播种期和品种变化减小了气候变暖对生育期的影响He et al, 2015华北地区1981—2009年,冬小麦EMD推迟,AD和MD提前,WGP缩短,AD至MD延长气候变暖为主导因子,品种、播种期和农业管理措施变化等因素也有一定影响Tao et al, 20171982-2000年,冬小麦EMD和HAD均提前,HAD提前幅度更大,EMD—HAD缩短气候变暖为主要影响因子Fang et al, 20051980-2009年,冬小麦SD至ELD、SD至AD、SD至MD缩短,其他生育阶段变化在站点间并不统一显著;气温升高导致SD至ELD、SD至AD、SD至MD缩短,晚播导致SD至ELD缩短,品种变化对各站点影响不一Wang et al, 20131981—2009年,冬小麦SD、EMD推迟, AD、MD提前,AD至MD延长,WGP缩短气候变暖促使生育期变化,品种变化导致AD至MD略微延长Tao et al, 20131981—2005年,冬小麦WGP、VGP缩短,RGP延长气候变暖缩短WGP、VGP,延长RGP,品种变化延长WGP和VGP,RGP在多数站点延长Li et al, 20161982—2013年,冬小麦78%的区域GUD提前,平均提前1.8 d/10 a气候变化为物候变化主因,但土壤水分因素不能忽略,对返青期影响较大Wang S et al, 2017

注：SD为播种期,EMD为出苗期,DD为越冬期,GUD为返青期,ELD为拔节期,HD为抽穗期,AD为开花期,MD为成熟期,HAD为收获期,RGP为生殖生长期,VGP为营养生长期,WGP为全生育期。

新窗口打开

从整体研究上看,由于区域气候、地理环境和农业管理措施的差异,区域间物候变化趋势不尽相同。在中国众多农业气象试验站中,40%的站点春小麦和冬小麦抽穗期和成熟期显著提前,60%的站点生殖生长期显著延长,30%的站点全生育期和营养生长期显著缩短,华北平原、黄土高原和四川盆地等地区全生育期缩短最为显著(Tao et al, 2012; Tao, Zhang, Zhang et al, 2014)。春小麦和冬小麦生长季不同,因此物候变化程度也有较大差异。1980—2009年,冬小麦抽穗期平均提前12.4 d/10 a,成熟期提前速率小于抽穗期,营养生长期缩短,生殖生长期延长6.0 d/10 a,全生育期缩短11.3 d/10 a(Xiao et al, 2015)。相对于冬小麦,春小麦生育期变化幅度明显更小。在1980—2009年,中国北方地区的春小麦开花期和成熟期提前,生殖生长期延长,营养生长期和全生育期缩短(Xiao, Tao et al, 2016)。春小麦变化幅度远不及冬小麦,这说明区域间气候变化程度以及小麦生长季内各生育阶段气候变化程度都存在较大差异。

2.2 玉米物候的响应与适应

玉米在粮食作物构成中仅次于水稻和小麦,居杂粮作物之首,在东北、华北、西北以及西南地区广泛种植,分布范围较广(表2)。根据播种时间的差异,中国玉米种植类型主要分为春玉米和夏玉米,其中春玉米主要分布在东北和西北地区;而华北和西南地区为春玉米与夏玉米混种区,其中,华北地区夏玉米种植居多,西南地区则主要是春玉米。玉米物候研究集中在播种期、出苗期、抽穗期/抽雄期、开花期、成熟期等生育期以及营养生长期、生殖生长期和全生育期等生育阶段(表2)。东北地区春玉米物候研究较多,但由于各地农业管理措施等差异,物候变化也有不同。41.5%的站点春玉米出苗期显著提前达10.0 d/10 a,在17%的站点则显著推迟;抽雄期在41.5%的站点显著提前,在13.2%的站点则显著推迟达到10.5 d/10 a;43.4%的站点成熟期显著推迟。生育阶段方面,43.4%的站点营养生长期缩短,56.6%的站点延长;生殖生长期在22.6%的站点缩短,77.4%的站点延长;全生育期在33.9%的站点显著延长(Li et al, 2014)。东北地区区域间的物候变化并不平衡,但总体的趋势较为明显,1981—2007年,东北地区播种期提前,成熟期推迟,全生育期延长,区域间物候变化起伏较大(Liu Z et al, 2013)。西北地区春玉米生育期的延长主要归结于晚熟品种的使用,玉米品种的变换抵消了气候变暖对玉米生育期的不利影响(Bu et al, 2015)。华北平原玉米物候研究主要集中在对夏玉米物候的研究上。在1980—2010年,华北平原夏玉米物候变化特征大致为：成熟期推迟,营养生长期缩短,生殖生长期和全生育期延长(Wang et al, 2016; Xiao, Qi et al, 2016)。不同气候因子对玉米生育期的影响不同,玉米生育期与平均温度呈负相关关系,但与降水、日照时间和有效积温日等气候因子呈正相关关系(Liu Y J et al, 2017)。

Tab.2 表2

表2 中国玉米物候变化特征及驱动因子

Tab.2 Characteristics of change and driving factors of maize phenology in China

分布区物候变化驱动因子文献全国玉米种植区1981—2009年,西北、东北、西南的春玉米SD显著提前,58.9%站点HD提前;东北和华北地区玉米MD显著延迟;41.1%站点玉米WGP显著延长气温升高导致大约80%站点HD和MD提前,WGP缩短,品种变化则使得超过90%站点HD和MD推迟,WGP延长;除此之外,推迟播期也可以延长WGPTao, Zhang, Zhang et al, 2014东北地区1981—2007年,玉米SD提前,MD推迟4~21 d,RGP延长,WGP延长2~38 d气候变暖导致VGP、RGP和WGP缩短,品种变化则导致VGP、RGP和WGP延长,早播导致RGP缩短,VGP延长,但不显著Liu Z et al, 20131990—2012年,春玉米VGP在43.4%站点缩短,在56.6%站点延长;RGP在22.6%站点缩短,77.4%站点延长;WGP在33.9%站点显著延长气候、品种、农业管理措施等因子综合影响导致区域生育期变化Li et al, 2014西北地区1980—2010年,春玉米平均VGP、RGP和WGP延长气候变暖缩短WGP,晚熟品种的使用则延长了WGPBu et al, 2015华北地区1981—2010年,夏玉米SD至ELD和ELD至AD在多数站点呈缩短趋势,RGP和WGP在92.6%站点呈延长趋势平均温度与WGP呈负相关,降水量则呈正相关;气候变暖缩短玉米WGP,而品种变化则延长了玉米VGP、RGP和WGPWang et al, 20161981—2008年,夏玉米MD推迟,VGP缩短,RGP延长气候变暖使得AD和MD提前,RGP缩短,品种变化则导致MD推迟、RGP延长2.4 d/10 a~3.7 d/10 aXiao, Qi et al, 20161981—2009年,夏玉米SD推迟,EMD、ELD、TAD、AD和MD提前,VGP缩短0.9 d/10 a,RGP延长1.7 d/10 a,WGP延长0.4 d/10 a生育期长度与平均温度呈负相关,但与降水、日照时间和有效积温日呈正相关Liu Y J et al, 2017

注：SD为播种期,EMD为出苗期,ELD为拔节期,HD为抽穗期,TAD为抽雄期,AD为开花期,MD为成熟期,RGP为生殖生长期,VGP为营养生长期,WGP为全生育期。

新窗口打开

生育期与气候变化之间复杂的耦合关系以及农业管理措施的多元性导致了各地区玉米物候变化的不均衡。在种植玉米的农业气象站点中,西北、东北和西南的春玉米播种期显著提前,58.9%的站点玉米抽穗期提前;东北和华北平原地区玉米成熟期显著延迟,41.1%的站点玉米全生育期显著延长。在单纯气温升高(农业管理措施保持不变)的情况下,全国大约80%的站点抽穗期和成熟期提前,全生育期缩短。为了保证玉米产量,通过更换玉米品种使得超过90%的站点抽穗期和成熟期推迟,从而延长全生育期,保证了玉米产量;此外,推迟播种期也可以延长全生育期(Tao, Zhang, Zhang et al, 2014)。

2.3 水稻物候的响应与适应

水稻是中国总产最高的粮食作物,广泛分布于长江流域、珠江流域以及东北地区等。水稻种植类型主要分为单季稻和双季稻(早熟稻和晚熟稻),单季稻大致分布于长江以北地区、东北地区和西南地区,双季稻则主要分布在长江以南湿润地区(表3)。东北平原地区单季稻生育期变化趋势较为明显：播种期呈提前趋势,成熟期呈推迟趋势,营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期均呈延长趋势(Tao et al, 2013)。气候变暖与品种的更新换代是导致东北平原地区水稻生育期变化的主要因素。东北平原9月份气温升高在一定程度上会延长作物全生育期长度,而7月份温度升高则可能导致作物生育期缩短;同时,新育成长生育期品种是导致吉林省水稻生育期延长的主要影响因素,品种更换对黑龙江影响次之,对辽宁影响最小(侯雯嘉等, 2015)。长江中下游平原地区单季稻生育期变化趋势与东北平原变化趋势一致,移栽期平均提前2.11 d/10 a,抽穗期与成熟期分别推迟1.37 d/10 a和0.073 d/10 a,营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期分别延长3.03 d/10 a、1.53 d/10 a、4.28 d/10 a,其变化趋势较东北平原单季稻更为突出;双季稻生育期变化特征与单季稻生育期有较大不同,移栽期、抽穗期、成熟期均提前,营养生长期与全生育期缩短,生殖生长期延长(Tao et al, 2013)。

Tab.3 表3

表3 中国水稻物候变化特征及驱动因子

Tab.3 Characteristics of change and driving factors of rice phenology in China

分布区物候变化驱动因子文献全国水稻种植区1981—2009年,单季稻WGP在信阳、镇江延长显著,在武昌略有延长,在汉源变化较小气候变暖缩短水稻生育期,品种变化延长了生育期,品种变化影响略大于气候变化影响Liu et al, 20121981—2009年,除衡阳晚熟稻WGP延长外,南昌、衡阳和高要的早熟稻和晚熟稻的WGP均缩短气候变暖缩短水稻生育期,品种变化则延长了生育期,但气候变暖对生育期影响要大于品种变化的影响Liu L et al, 20131981—2006年,单季稻和双季稻平均情况下,VGP缩短3.3 d/℃,RGP缩短1.2 d/℃,WGP缩短4.1 d/℃气候变暖导致生育期缩短;单季稻和早熟稻品种变化影响不明显,晚熟稻VGP缩短0.9 d/℃,表明晚熟稻品种变化为短生育期品种Zhang et al, 20131981—2009年,单季稻和双季稻的TPD、HD、MD提前,VGP、RGP、WGP变化程度相同气温升高导致VGP和RGP缩短;品种变化使得单季稻VGP延长,双季稻VGP缩短,单季稻和早熟稻RGP延长Zhang et al, 20141981—2012年,单季稻和双季稻的VGP变化幅度大于RGP变化幅度气温升高对于单季稻、早熟稻以及晚熟稻的生育期变化的平均贡献比例分别为-40%、-45%、-35%,品种变化则为58%、44%、-37%Hu et al, 20171991—2012年,早熟稻WGP平均延长(1.0±4.8) d/10 a,晚熟稻WGP平均延长(0.2±4.5) d/10 a,单季稻WGP平均延长(2.0±6.0) d/10 a气候变暖导致早熟稻生育期缩短,晚熟稻延长;移栽期的改变等农业管理措施是早熟稻和单季稻生育期变化的主导因素Wang X et al, 20171981—2009年,单季稻HD、MD推迟,但单季稻、早熟稻和晚熟稻的平均TPD、HD、MD均提前;单季稻的VGP、RGP、WGP均延长,长江中下游平原双季稻则为VGP与WGP缩短,RGP延长气候变暖导致80%站点水稻生育期缩短,但品种变化延长了单季稻和长江中下游平原早熟稻的RGP,而晚熟稻WGP由于气候变化和品种变化共同作用而缩短Tao et al, 2013东北地区1989—2009年,单季稻SD提前,MD推迟,VGP、RGP与WGP显著延长气候变暖和新育成品种是1989—2009年影响东北地区水稻生育期延长的主要因素侯雯嘉等, 2015华北地区1981—2007年,单季稻SD和TPD显著提前,SD至TPD逐渐缩短,TPD至HD和HD至MD延长,其中TPD至HD显著延长,气候倾向率达4.4 d/10 a信阳地区水稻生育期的变化主要受4—5月温度变化的影响薛昌颖等, 2010

注：SD为播种期,EMD为出苗期,TPD为移栽期,ELD为拔节期,HD为抽穗期,AD为开花期,MD为成熟期,RGP为生殖生长期,VGP为营养生长期,WGP为全生育期。

新窗口打开

区域间气候变化、地理环境、种植制度和农业管理水平等的差异导致区域间水稻生育期变化特征的不同。从全国范围来看,单季稻和双季稻的移栽期、抽穗期、成熟期提前,早熟稻、晚熟稻和单季稻全生育期延长(Zhang et al, 2014; Wang X et al, 2017)。气候变化对水稻生育期变化的贡献比例与移栽期变化、品种更替等农业管理措施对水稻生育期变化的贡献比例相差较小,其中气候变暖对于单季稻、早熟稻、晚熟稻生育期变化的贡献比例分别为-40%、-45%、-35%,品种更新对生育期变化的贡献比例则分别为58%、44%以及-37%,二者对水稻生育期的影响均不可忽视(Hu et al, 2017)。

2.4 其他典型作物物候的响应与适应

国内对农作物物候的研究主要集中于小麦、玉米、水稻三大主要粮食作物上,对棉花、大豆等经济作物物候研究相对较少。Wang等(2008)对1983—2004年间中国西北地区的春棉花生育期变化进行了统计分析,研究表明,气候变暖导致春棉花的出苗期、发芽期、开花期、吐絮期分别提前10.9 d、9.0 d、13.9 d、16.4 d,出苗期至五叶期缩短5.3 d,五叶期至发芽期延长9.2 d,发芽期至开花期和开花期至吐絮期均延长,全生育期延长达到9.0 d。气候变化对棉花生长具有重要影响,尤其是生育期内最低温度与生育期变化紧密相关,但变化程度受具体生长环境条件以及种植品种特性影响。新疆干旱地区绿洲的棉花生育期变化幅度更为显著,播种期至出苗期、吐絮期至吐絮盛期分别缩短1.76 d和5.19 d,全生育期延长超过22 d(Huang et al, 2015)。相对而言,华北平原棉花生育期变化特征没有西北干旱地区突出,全生育期除北部偏干旱站点延长外,其余多数站点缩短(Wang Z et al, 2017)。棉花是华北地区和西北地区主要的经济作物,而东北地区的主要经济作物则是大豆。东北地区大豆生育期变化受气候变化影响较大,气候变暖导致大豆出苗期提前0.01~0.61 d/a,成熟期提前0.18~0.19 d/a,全生育期缩短0.06~0.17 d/a,变化幅度较小(李正国等, 2011)。

无论是粮食作物还是经济作物,作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施变化(品种变化、作物播种期变化等)两大影响因子,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用。

2.5 未来气候变化下作物物候的预测

气候变暖对作物物候的影响不单指气温升高的影响,降水、日照时数等其他气候因子对作物生育期的影响也不容忽视(Tao et al, 2006)。此外,中国现阶段对作物生育期的研究集中在过去几十年作物物候变化规律特征上,但随着研究方法不断改进和完善,对未来气候变化情况下作物物候的预测研究在逐渐增多。准确模拟预测作物生育期,可以为作物各生育阶段的农业气象条件评估以及产量预报等活动提供理论支撑(李树岩等, 2015)。翟治芬等(2012)建立了不同农业种植区域气候变化与玉米物候期变化的回归方程,并将PRECIS模型(Providing Regional Climate for Impact Study)中的情景数据代入方程预测21世纪30年代中国玉米的生育期,结果表明,中国玉米全生育期变化趋势以延长为主。Lv等(2013)利用WheatGrow作物模型,结合高分辨率全球气候模式(Global Climate Model, GCM)对中国冬小麦主产区21世纪30、50以及70年代3种温室气体排放情况下冬小麦的开花期和灌浆阶段持续时间进行了模拟预测,在模拟预测试验中,小麦品种和播种期保持不变。预测结果表明,随着气温升高,开花期逐步提前,开花期提前幅度同气温升高程度相关性较强,灌浆阶段持续时间在未来变化比较平稳,缩短幅度较小。Chen等(2014)利用MIROC-RegCM3气候模型模拟预测了2030—2090年鲁西北平原地区气候,将预测气候数据代入CERES-Maize模型中,对2030—2090年鲁西北地区玉米生育期进行了预测模拟,结果表明,在品种和播种期保持不变的情况下,玉米灌浆阶段将会缩短,对玉米产量造成不利影响。

3 结论与展望

农作物物候研究对于农业环境评估、农业灾害预防以及农作物产量的稳定等均有重要意义。本文通过分析汇总中国近几十年主要农作物生育期的变化特征及其相应的研究方法,得出以下结论：

(1) 作物物候的研究方法主要是田间试验观测方法、统计分析方法、模型模拟方法和遥感反演方法等,其中使用最普遍的是统计分析方法,其他3种方法都需要结合统计分析方法。模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对生育期特征要求较高,研究的生育期一般为春季作物的返青期等。

(2) 中国对作物物候的研究主要集中在小麦、玉米、水稻等主要粮食作物以及棉花、大豆等主要经济作物上。各区域主要农作物生育期特征在气候变暖的背景下均产生了变化,但变化程度不同,这主要是由区域间气候条件、生态环境以及农业管理水平的差异造成的。

(3) 农作物的播种期/出苗期(水稻为移栽期)、抽穗期/开花期、成熟期、营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期是物候变化研究的重点生育期。整体上,小麦物候变化特征为：抽穗期/开花期和成熟期以提前为主,营养生长期和全生育期缩短,生殖生长期延长;玉米抽穗期和成熟期变化特征不显著,营养生长期缩短,生殖生长期和全生育期以延长为主要趋势;水稻则由于区域间生长条件的不同导致区域间作物生育期变化趋势存在较大差异,总体上,全生育期呈延长趋势。

(4) 作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施变化两大影响因子,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用。气候变暖通常会造成作物生育期缩短,影响作物生长发育,减少作物产量。调整农业管理措施,例如种植长生育期品种、提前或推迟播种期等,提高管理水平,延长作物生育期,可以一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响,保证农业生产的安全。

作物物候研究意义重大。未来作物物候研究趋向于田间试验观测、作物模型以及统计分析等多种研究方法的结合使用,从而进一步提高研究结果的可靠性。在未来的研究中,主要应开展以下3个方面的工作：其一,进一步完善作物物候研究方法,通过改进作物模型和统计模型等提高模型模拟结果精度;其二,当下物候研究偏重于作物形态学研究,对作物生理学特征研究不足,作物生理学特征定量化难度较大是研究的一大难点;其三,不同地区作物物候对气候变化的响应机制是不同的,针对不同地区物候变化特征,采取相应的管理措施去应对气候变化,这也是未来作物物候研究的主要方向之一。

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

参考文献原文顺序文献年度倒序文中引用次数倒序被引期刊影响因子 [1] 陈金, 杨飞, 张彬, 等. 2010.

被动式夜间增温设施设计及其增温效果

[J]. 应用生态学报, 21(9): 2288-2294.

URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

为了建立一套简便节能的野外夜间增温设施，参照国际上夜间被动式增温系统（passive nighttime warming, PNW），在江苏丹阳设计了稻麦系统夜间被动式增温设施.结果表明：该系统可以保证15.75 m2的有效采样区域，温度增幅均匀，水稻冠层全生育期夜间平均温度升高1.1 ℃，冬小麦冠层和5 cm土层全生育期夜间平均温度分别提高1.3 ℃和0.8 ℃；该增温系统在运行期间，水稻和冬小麦全生育期的冠层和土壤温度的日变化趋势与非增温对照区基本一致.该系统使麦田土壤含水量略微降低，但对小麦生长的影响不明显.将该系统在我国水稻和冬小麦主要产区应用时发现，该夜间增温系统可以使水稻和冬小麦始花期分别平均提前3 d和5 d.该系统的增温效果在不同区域和季节存在一定的差异，但综合考虑该系统的增温均匀性和增温区域有效性，及其对稻麦生育期的影响效果，该设施不仅节能，而且可以满足野外增温试验研究的基本要求.

[Chen J, Yang F, Zhang B, et al.2010.

Passive nighttime warming (PNW) system, its design and warming effect

. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 21(9): 2288-2294. ]

URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

[2] 方修琦, 余卫红. 2002.

物候对全球变暖响应的研究综述

[J]. 地球科学进展, 17(5): 714-719.

https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2002.05.013 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

近100年来，尤其是在最近20多年，全球平均表面温度出现了显著上升，全球变暖已成为全球关注的重要问题。物候现象与气候等环境因素息息相关，物候对全球变暖的响应研究正在成为物候研究的一个新的热点领域，NDVI正日益成为植被对气候响应研究的重要手段。概述了当前物候对全球变暖响应研究的主要进展。基于实地动植物等物候观测和遥感监测的大量研究表明，近期动植物等物候正发生着显著变化：北半球中高纬度地区植被生长季延长、植物提早开花、昆虫提早出现、鸟类提早产蛋以及冰川退缩、永冻土带融化、江河湖泊结冰推迟而融化提早等，与气候变暖有密切关系，是对全球变暖的明显响应。目前国内的许多研究者在物候对气候变暖响应方面做了一些工作，但与国际研究进展相比，还有许多研究工作有待于进一步开展。

[Fang X Q, Yu W H.2002.

Progress in the studies on the phenological responging to global warming

. Advance in Earth Sciences, 17(5): 714-719. ]

https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-8166.2002.05.013 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

[3] 高辉明, 张正斌, 徐萍, 等. 2013.

2001—2009年中国北部冬小麦生育期和产量变化

[J]. 中国农业科学, 46(11): 2201-2210.

https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.11.003 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

【目的】研究中国北部冬麦区水地组小麦品种农艺性状适应气候变暖的变化规律，为小麦品种改良提供理论依据和指导方法。【方法】利用2001—2009年国家冬小麦区域试验北部冬麦区水地组对照品种的农艺性状和该地区相关气象资料，研究对照品种农艺性状变化规律，并进行农艺性状和气象要素的相关分析。【结果】对照品种出苗日期和成熟日期逐渐推迟；生育期逐渐缩短，且与年平均温度和生育期≥0℃积温呈负相关；生殖生长阶段随着相应期间≥0℃积温的增加而延长；随着气候变暖，千粒重和每公顷产量呈增加趋势。农艺性状相关分析表明，千粒重与每公顷产量呈极显著正相关，生殖生长阶段与每公顷产量呈较强正相关；多元线性回归分析表明，株高和千粒重2 性状决定了产量变异的95.7%。【结论】气候变暖对北部冬麦区冬小麦生长发育有较强的影响，选育生育期较短，但生殖生长阶段较长，千粒重大的高产品种是北部冬麦区未来适应气候变暖的品种改良方向。

[Gao H M, Zhang Z B, Xu P, et al.2013.

Changes of winter wheat growth period and yield in Northern China from 2001-2009

. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 46(11): 2201-2210. ]

https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.11.003 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

近20年气候变暖对东北水稻生育期和产量的影响

[J]. 应用生态学报, 26(1): 249-259.

URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要

为探究近20年气候变暖对东北地区水稻生育期和产量的影响,利用东北三省近20年水稻生育期、产量数据和气候观测数据,采用数理统计等方法进行分析.结果表明: 1989—2009年东北三省水稻生长季日平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均呈上升趋势,降水量均呈下降趋势.与1990s相比,2000s黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省水稻全生育期分别延长了14、4.5和5.1 d.东北地区5、6和9月温度升高可延长水稻全生育期,而7月温度升高则缩短生育期.除黑龙江省外,东北地区的审定品种和观测站点水稻生育期均呈相似的变化趋势,审定品种生育期的延长是导致观测站点水稻生育期延长的主要原因.东北地区日平均温度、最低温度和最高温度的变化均会影响水稻产量,温度上升对黑龙江省的增产效应较明显,尤其是三江平原以西地区.除辽宁省南部以外,其他地区升温均表现为增产.东北地区可以采取育种、栽培和耕作等措施充分挖掘水稻适应气候变暖的能力.;

[Hou W J, Geng T, Chen Q, et al.2015.

Impacts of climate warming on growth period and yield of rice in Northeast China during recent two decades

. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 26(1): 249-259. ]

URL Magsci [本文引用: 2] 摘要

作物生长模拟模型的开发应用进展

[J]. 西北农业大学学报, (4): 102-107.

URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

论述了作物生长模拟模型的开发研究进展和模型的应用情况，并对作物生长模拟模型今后的研究提出了自己的见解

[Li J.1997.

The progress in the development and application of crop growth simulation models

. Journal of Northwest A&F University, (4): 102-107. ]

URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

论述了作物生长模拟模型的开发研究进展和模型的应用情况，并对作物生长模拟模型今后的研究提出了自己的见解 [6] 李树岩, 王靖, 余卫东, 等. 2015.

气候变化对河南省夏玉米主栽品种发育期的影响模拟

[J]. 中国农业气象, 36(4): 479-488.

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.012 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

为模拟气候变化对夏玉米发育期影响，本文将河南省划分为4个夏玉米主栽区，分区进行主栽品种遗传参数调试验证，确定各区域品种平均遗传参数。将未来气候变化情景(A2和B2)下，2020s、2050s和2080s各时段的温度和降水增量加上基准值，模拟未来气候变化对河南省夏玉米发育期的影响。模型调参验证结果表明：各区域品种遗传参数存在一定差异，豫西地区当前种植品种播种-开花所需积温高于其它地区，而豫北和豫东当前种植品种开花-成熟所需积温高于其它地区；各区开花期调参和验证误差RMSE为2～4d，相对误差NRMSE均小于10%；各区域成熟期调参误差RMSE均小于4d，验证误差RMSE为3～7d，除豫西区外，各区域调参及验证期间的成熟期相对误差NRMSE均小于10%。表明CERES-Maize模型对河南省各区域夏玉米发育期模拟精度均较高。未来气候变化影响模拟结果表明：A2和B2情景下，夏玉米营养生长期平均缩短4.7d和3.1d，全生育期平均缩短12.9d和8.6d。夏玉米生育期缩短日数与各时段增温幅度趋势一致，全省4个区域中豫西区生育期日数缩短最多。

[Li S Y, Wang J, Yu W D, et al.2015.

Modelling the impacts of climate change on phenology of representative maize varieties in Henan Province

. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 36(4): 479-488. ]

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.012 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

气候变化背景下东北三省主要作物典型物候期变化趋势分析

[J]. 中国农业科学, 44(20): 4180-4189.

https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.20.006 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

【目的】分析气候变化背景下东北三省主要作物类型（水稻、玉米、春小麦和大豆）典型物候期（出苗期、抽穗期和成熟期）的变化趋势。【方法】应用气候倾向率（θ）确定农业气候资源特征和典型物候期的变化趋势与整体对应关系。【结果】近20年来，东北三省大部分地区≥10℃初日出现了提前趋势，初霜日不断推迟，温度生长期天数持续增加，≥10℃积温总体呈升高趋势。在此背景下，水稻和玉米均出现了出苗期提前（0.04＜θ＜0.55 d•a-1和0.04＜θ＜0.35 d•a-1）、成熟期推后（0.09＜θ＜0.35 d•a-1和0.23 ＜θ＜0.38 d•a-1）、以及生育期延长（0.31＜θ＜1.26 d•a-1和0.11＜θ＜0.57 d•a-1）的趋势；大豆则表现为出苗期提前（0.01＜θ＜0.61 d•a-1）、成熟期提前（0.18＜θ＜0.19 d•a-1）、生育期缩短（0.06＜θ＜0.17 d•a-1）的趋势；而春小麦典型物候期的变化趋势不明显。【结论】东北三省农业气候资源变化使作物生长期内温度适宜程度偏向好转，总体上有利于早种晚收、生育期长的作物品种的推广种植。

[Li Z G, Yang P, Tang H J, et al.2011.

Trend analysis of typical phenophases of major crops under climate change in the three provinces of Northeast China

. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 44(20): 4180-4189. ]

https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2011.20.006 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

气候变暖对信阳地区水稻生育期的影响

[J]. 中国农业气象, 31(3): 353-357.

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2010.03.005 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

利用1961-2008年信阳气象站气象资料和1981-2007年信阳农业气象试验站水稻生育期观测资料,分析了气候变暖对信阳地区水稻生育期的影响。结果表明:信阳地区近48a年平均气温整体呈上升趋势,但具有明显的阶段特征,1981年之前温度总体呈降低趋势,而1981年之后(含1981年)温度呈显著上升趋势;水稻生长季内4-5月变暖趋势最为显著,平均温度、最高温度和最低温度均显著上升,其它时段变暖趋势不明显。4-5月温度的显著升高使水稻播种和移栽日期呈显著提前的变化趋势;另一方面,由于生长季中后期温度变化不明显,水稻抽穗和成熟日期无显著变化,造成水稻移栽-抽穗期显著延长。播种期和移栽期提前,有利于水稻早生快发,培育适龄壮秧,移栽-抽穗期延长可相应延长水稻穗分化时间,有利于大穗的形成和产量的提高。

[Xue C Y, Liu R H, Wu Q.2010.

Effect of climate warming on rice growing stages in Xinyang

. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 31(3): 353-357. ]

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2010.03.005 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

播期对冬小麦生长及所需积温的影响

[J]. 中国农业气象, 30(2): 201-203.

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2009.02.015 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

为给应对气候变暖而进行播期战略性调整和确定播量提供科学依据,以济麦20为供试材料,对时间跨度为67d的12个播期的冬小麦生长及所需积温进行了对比研究。结果表明:随着播期的推迟,播种-出苗期需0℃以上积温有所增加,冬前主茎每长1叶、冬后关键生育期和全生育期所需0℃以上的积温大幅度减少。晚播处理的苗后积温利用率显著提高,推迟播期有利于节约光热资源,为上茬秋作物腾出较多积温,让其在田间充分灌浆和成熟。

[Yang H B, Xu C Z, Li C G, et al.2009.

Growth and required accumulated temperature of winter wheat under different sowing time

. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 30(2): 201-203. ]

https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2009.02.015 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

中国玉米生育期变化及其影响因子研究

[J]. 中国农业科学, 45(22): 4587-4603.

https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.22.005 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

【目的】在全球气候变化背景下，分析中国玉米播种期和成熟期的变动情况以及气候资源变化特征。【方法】在收集整理全国2 414个县的玉米生育期数据的基础上，绘制了1970s和2000s中国玉米的播种期与收获期分布图；在整理全国618个气象站点1971—2010年气象资料的基础上，绘制了1970s时段和2000s时段中国年均温度、降雨和太阳辐射量空间分布图。以农业种植一级区为基本单位，建立不同区域农业气候资源变化与玉米生育期变化的回归方程，并将PRECIS模型中B2情景数据代入方程组预测2030s中国玉米的生育期。【结果】与1970s时段相比，2000s时段东北大豆春麦甜菜区的玉米播种期基本保持不变；其它各农业种植一级区的玉米播种期均提前约1—15 d；除东北大豆春麦甜菜区和北部高原小杂粮甜菜区春玉米的成熟期平均推迟了11 d和3 d，2000s时段其它玉米种植区域的成熟期平均提前3—12 d。2000s时段云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米生育期缩短约5 d，黄淮海棉麦油烟果区、华南双季稻热带作物甘蔗区和西北绿洲麦棉甜菜葡萄区的玉米生育期基本保持不变；其它各区域玉米生育期均有所延长。与2000s时段相比，B2情景下，2030s东北大豆春麦甜菜区的春玉米播种期将推迟2—5 d，其它各农业种植一级区的玉米播种期将提前2—19 d；东北大豆春麦甜菜区、北部高原小杂粮甜菜区和华南双季稻热带作物甘蔗区的玉米成熟期将推迟4—15 d，黄淮海棉麦油烟果区、长江中下游稻棉油桑茶区、川陕盆地稻玉米薯类柑橘桑区和云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米成熟期将提前2—12 d，南方丘陵双季稻茶柑橘区和西北绿洲麦棉甜菜葡萄区的玉米成熟期则基本保持不变。2030s时段黄淮海棉麦油烟果区和云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米生育期则将缩短3—6 d，其它区域的玉米生育期将延长2—15 d。【结论】中国气候正朝着增温、变干和低辐射的方向发展。受温度、降雨和太阳辐射量变化的影响，中国不同农业种植区域内玉米生育期变动明显，其中除东北大豆春麦甜菜区外玉米播种期以提前为主，玉米成熟期的变动则较为复杂，玉米的生育期则以延长为主。

[Zhai Z F, Hu W, Yan C R, et al.2012.

Change of maize growth period and its impact factor in China

. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 45(22): 4587-4603. ]

https://doi.org/10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.22.005 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

农田开放式夜间增温系统的设计及其在稻麦上的试验效果

[J]. 作物学报, 36(4): 620-628.

https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1006.2010.00620 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

气候变暖存在明显的昼夜不对称性，夜间增温显著高于白天。设计可靠的田间增温设施，研究作物系统对夜间增温的响应与适应意义显著。为此，笔者参考国际相关增温系统，于2006—2009年在江苏南京设计并运行了我国首个农田开放式夜间增温系统(FATI: Free Air Temperature Increased)，对稻麦进行夜间主动增温试验，监测系统温度、麦田土壤水分和作物生育进程和产量，以评价该系统的可行性和对稻麦的增温效果。结果表明，该系统有效且均匀的增温范围为4 m2，增温效果明显。在测试用的人工草坪上，晴天、阴天和雨天3种天气情况下，该系统4 m2有效增温范围内地表的夜温平均升高2.4℃、2.3℃和2.1℃。在草坪的垂直层面上，该系统可以使距地下5 cm、地表、地上40 cm和90 cm 4个层次的夜温平均分别提高1.2℃、2.3℃、0.7℃和2.2℃。在稻麦两熟农田中，稻季全生育期地下5 cm、地表、植株中部和冠层的夜温平均分别提高0.7℃、0.6℃、1.0℃和1.6℃，麦季相应层次可升高1.2℃、1.5℃、1.8℃和1.9℃。在稻麦全生育期内，增温小区各层温度的变化动态与未增温区的一致。另外，该系统未改变麦田耕层土壤水分分布特征，尽管耕层土壤含水量略有降低，0~25 cm内各层土壤含水量的降幅均在0.99~1.62个百分点以内，与未增温区差异不显著。夜间增温可以显著缩短作物前期生育期，使稻麦始穗期分别提早2.5 d和11.5 d；同时，夜间增温使水稻平均减产4.51%，但小麦增产18.30%。尽管在作物的不同生育期，该设施的增温幅度有所差异，但这与田间实际情况下不同季节气候变暖幅度不同之特征是一致的。因此，该开放式夜间增温系统符合气候变暖的温度变化特征，可以满足水稻和小麦所代表的典型作物系统对夜间增温的响应与适应的试验研究要求。

[Zhang B, Zheng J C, Tian Y L, et al.2010.

System design of Free Air Temperature Increased (FATI) for field nighttime warming experiment and its effects on rice-wheat cropping system

. Acta Agronomica Sinica, 36(4): 620-628. ]

https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1006.2010.00620 URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

播期对春小麦生长发育及产量的影响

[J]. 生态学杂志, 31(2): 324-331.

URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

为了给陇中半干旱区春小麦高产栽培提供依据，2010年在甘肃定西进行了春小麦分期播种试验，并对不同播期条件下春小麦生长发育及产量形成进行了分析。结果表明：随着播期的推迟，春小麦播种-抽穗期日数减少、全生育期明显缩短；5月下旬之前，越早播种的春小麦LAI越大，5月下旬之后，播种愈晚春小麦LAI越大。早播春小麦LAI峰值靠前，晚播峰值滞后；6月下旬之前，播期早的春小麦叶绿素含量高于播期晚的，6月下旬之后播期愈早叶绿素含量下降愈快；不同播期春小麦群体生长率和净同化率在孕穗-抽穗期后差异显著，表现为3月18日播期最大，4月7日播期最小。各播期干物质累积在拔节期后表现为快速递增趋势。在拔节期前，早播处理的干物质积累速率较慢。随着播期的推迟，单株干物质最大积累速率出现时间提前，籽粒最大灌浆速率出现时间推迟，千粒重表现为先升后降；灌浆3个阶段各参数受播期影响比较显著；早播春小麦产量最高。

[Zhang K, Li Q Z, Wang R Y, et al.2012.

Effects of sowing date on the growth and yield of spring wheat

. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 31(2): 324-331. ]

URL Magsci [本文引用: 1] 摘要

夜间增温对江苏不同年代水稻主栽品种生育期和产量的影响

[J]. 应用生态学报, 25(5): 1349-1356.

URL Magsci [本文引用: 4] 摘要

采用开放式主动增温系统，在江苏省丹阳市开展夜间增温试验，研究夜间温度升高对江苏1970s—2000s 8个主要推广水稻品种生育期和产量的影响.结果表明：不同年代水稻品种的主要生长特性对夜间增温的响应程度存在明显差异，但响应趋势基本一致.全生育期内水稻冠层夜间温度平均升高0.9 ℃，水稻始穗期平均提前1.1 d，全生育期缩短1.3 d.夜间增温下，花后总绿叶面积和剑叶面积呈下降趋势，成熟期生物学产量和籽粒产量分别平均降低了3.5%和5.1%，植株N含量也降低.产量构成分析发现，夜间增温主要通过降低水稻有效穗数和穗粒数使产量下降，单位面积总颖花数下降了12.6%.品种间并未随年代发展而出现明显的变化趋势，新老品种间差异不显著.;

[Zhang X, Chen J, Jiang Y, et al.2014. [

Impacts of nighttime warming on rice growth stage and grain yield of leading varieties released in different periods in Jiangsu Province, China

. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 25(5): 1349-1356. ]

URL Magsci [本文引用: 4] 摘要

[本文引用: 1]

[China Agricultural Yearbook Editorial Committee. 2011. China agriculture yearbook 2011. Beijing, China: Agricultural Publishing House. ]

[本文引用: 1]

[15] Abbas G, Ahmad S, Ahmad A, et al.2017.

Quantification the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenology of maize-based cropping system in Punjab, Pakistan

[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 247: 42-55.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.07.012 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

react-text: 215 Crop phenology influences the partitioning of assimilates, crop yield and agronomic management under changing climate. It is critical to quantify the interaction between climate warming and crop management on sugarcane phenology to understand the adaptation of crop to climate change. Similarly, in crop modeling parameterizing the phenology of new crop varieties is a major challenge. Historical... /react-text react-text: 216 /react-text [Show full abstract] [16] Ahmad S, Abbas G, Fatima Z, et al.2017.

Quantification of the impacts of climate warming and crop management on canola phenology in Punjab, Pakistan

[J]. Journal of Agronomy & Crop Science, 203(5): 442-452.

https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12206 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

Yield is influenced by the length of the growing season, which is affected by weather conditions and management practices of a crop, including sowing dates and shifting of cultivars. It is necessary to understand the effects of agronomic management practices and weather variables on phenological stages and crop phases in order to develop strategies for adaptation of agricultural systems to changes in climatic conditions. The goal of this study was to determine the impact of warming trends on phenology of canola from 1980 to 2014 for central and southern Punjab, Pakistan. Sowing, emergence, anthesis and physiological maturity dates were delayed by an average of 6.02, 3.14, 3.31 and 1.8902days per decade, respectively. The duration of sowing to anthesis, sowing to physiological maturity and anthesis to physiological maturity phases decreased an average 2.71, 4.13 and 1.4202days per decade, respectively, for all 10 locations that were analysed in this study. The sowing, emergence, anthesis and physiological maturity dates were positively correlated with an increase in temperature by an average 2.71, 1.41, 1.49 and 0.8502days per °C, respectively. However, the phenological phases such as sowing to anthesis, anthesis to maturity and sowing to maturity were negatively correlated with an increase in temperature by an average of 1.22, 0.64 and 1.8602days per °C, respectively, for all 10 locations. Applying a process‐based CSM‐CROPGRO‐Canola model using a standard cultivar (field tested) for all locations and years indicated that the simulated phenological stages occurred earlier due to the warming trend compared to the observed phenological stages. One‐quarter of the negative effects of this thermal trend was compensated by growing new cultivars that had higher thermal time requirements. Therefore, new canola genotypes with a higher number of growing degree day requirement and high temperature tolerance should be a priority for evolving new cultivars. [17] Ahmad S, Abbas Q, Abbas G, et al.2017.

Quantification of climate warming and crop management impacts on cotton phenology

[J]. Plants, 6(4): 1-16.

https://doi.org/10.3390/plants6010007 URL PMID: 28208605 [本文引用: 1] 摘要

Understanding the impact of the warming trend on phenological stages and phases of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in central and lower Punjab, Pakistan, may assist in optimizing crop management practices to enhance production. This study determined the influence of the thermal trend on cotton phenology from 1980–2015 in 15 selected locations. The results demonstrated that observed phenological stages including sowing (S), emergence (E), anthesis (A) and physiological maturity (M) occurred earlier by, on average, 5.35, 5.08, 2.87 and 1.12 days decade611, respectively. Phenological phases, sowing anthesis (S-A), anthesis to maturity (A-M) and sowing to maturity (S-M) were reduced by, on average, 2.45, 1.76 and 4.23 days decade611, respectively. Observed sowing, emergence, anthesis and maturity were negatively correlated with air temperature by, on average, 612.03, 611.93, 611.09 and 610.42 days °C611, respectively. Observed sowing-anthesis, anthesis to maturity and sowing-maturity were also negatively correlated with temperature by, on average, 610.94, 610.67 and 611.61 days °C611, respectively. Applying the cropping system model CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model using a standard variety in all locations indicated that the model-predicted phenology accelerated more due to warming trends than field-observed phenology. However, 30.21% of the harmful influence of the thermal trend was compensated as a result of introducing new cotton cultivars with higher growing degree day (thermal time) requirements. Therefore, new cotton cultivars which have higher thermal times and are high temperature tolerant should be evolved. [18] Ahmad S, Nadeem M, Abbas G, et al.2016.

Quantification of climate warming and crop management impact on sugarcane phenology

[J]. Climate Research, 71(1): 47-61.

https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01419 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

react-text: 351 Yield is influenced by the length of the growing season, which is affected by weather conditions and management practices of a crop, including sowing dates and shifting of cultivars. It is necessary to understand the effects of agronomic management practices and weather variables on phenological stages and crop phases in order to develop strategies for adaptation of agricultural systems to... /react-text react-text: 352 /react-text [Show full abstract] [19] Bu L, Chen X, Li S, et al.2015.

The effect of adapting cultivars on the water use efficiency of dryland maize (Zea mays, L.) in northwestern China

[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 148: 1-9.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2014.09.010 URL [本文引用: 2] 摘要

Global warming is predicted to have adverse effects on crop productivity and will present an enormous challenge to sustainable development and food security, especially in dryland regions. Prior studies have identified that adapted crop cultivars could effectively act to offset the effects of climate warming; however, the water use of adapted cultivars subject to climate warming is much less understood. We analysed warming trends across the Loess Plateau in north-western China beginning in 1960. There has been significant warming, especially since 1980, with an increase in the growing degree days (GDD, from April to September) of 260–330°C being observed over the past 30 years. If the maize cultivars had remained unchanged, the decreased yield potential would have been 0.39–1.83tha611 over the last 30 years. Meanwhile, the use of historical maize varieties has resulted in significantly decreased water use efficiency (WUE) across the Loess Plateau. Based on the increase in the GDD in each decade, we suggest planting adapted later-maturing maize cultivars to improve productivity. Compared with historical cultivars, the adapted later-maturing varieties significantly prolonged the maize growing cycle by an average of 27 d, thereby increasing the yield potential by 24.2–64.8% and the WUE by 9.0–38.1% throughout the Loess Plateau. However, the adapted maturing varieties may increase the water consumption (ET), which is the disadvantage for sustainable dryland farming, especially in dry regions. Hence, continuing to develop water-harvesting techniques (e.g., plastic film mulching) will help to offset the decreasing rainfall and guarantee food security and sustainability in dry regions. [20] Chen P, Liu Y.2014.

The impact of climate change on summer maize phenology in the northwest plain of Shandong Province under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario

[J]. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 17(1), doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/17/1/012053.

[本文引用: 1]

[21] Chmielewski F M, Müller A, Bruns E.2004.

Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany, 1961-2000

[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 121(1): 69-78.

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00161-8 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

Distinct changes in air temperature since the end of the 1980s have led to clear responses in plant phenology in many parts of the world. In Germany phenological phases of the natural vegetation as well as of fruit trees and field crops have advanced clearly in the last decade of the 20th century. The strongest shift in plant development occurred for the very early spring phases. The late spring phases and summer phases reacted also to the increased temperatures, but they usually show lower trends. Until now the changes in plant development are still moderate, so that no strong impacts on yield formation processes were observed. But further climate changes will probably increase the effect on plants, so that in the future stronger impacts on crop yields are likely. [22] Cong N, Wang T, Nan H, et al.2013.

Changes in satellite-derived spring vegetation green-up date and its linkage to climate in China from 1982 to 2010: A multimethod analysis

[J]. Global Change Biology, 19(3): 881-891.

https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12077 URL PMID: 23504844 [本文引用: 1] 摘要

The change in spring phenology is recognized to exert a major influence on carbon balance dynamics in temperate ecosystems. Over the past several decades, several studies focused on shifts in spring phenology; however, large uncertainties still exist, and one understudied source could be the method implemented in retrieving satellite-derived spring phenology. To account for this potential uncertainty, we conducted a multimethod investigation to quantify changes in vegetation green-up date from 1982 to 2010 over temperate China, and to characterize climatic controls on spring phenology. Over temperate China, the five methods estimated that the vegetation green-up onset date advanced, on average, at a rate of 1.3 0.6 days per decade (ranging from 0.4 to 1.9 days per decade) over the last 29 years. Moreover, the sign of the trends in vegetation green-up date derived from the five methods were broadly consistent spatially and for different vegetation types, but with large differences in the magnitude of the trend. The large intermethod variance was notably observed in arid and semiarid vegetation types. Our results also showed that change in vegetation green-up date is more closely correlated with temperature than with precipitation. However, the temperature sensitivity of spring vegetation green-up date became higher as precipitation increased, implying that precipitation is an important regulator of the response of vegetation spring phenology to change in temperature. This intricate linkage between spring phenology and precipitation must be taken into account in current phenological models which are mostly driven by temperature. [23] Craufurd P Q, Wheeler T R.2009.

Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops

[J]. Journal of Experimental Botany, 60(9): 2529-2539.

https://doi.org/10.1093/jxb/erp196 URL PMID: 19505929 [本文引用: 1] 摘要

Abstract Crop production is inherently sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature is a major determinant of the rate of plant development and, under climate change, warmer temperatures that shorten development stages of determinate crops will most probably reduce the yield of a given variety. Earlier crop flowering and maturity have been observed and documented in recent decades, and these are often associated with warmer (spring) temperatures. However, farm management practices have also changed and the attribution of observed changes in phenology to climate change per se is difficult. Increases in atmospheric [CO(2)] often advance the time of flowering by a few days, but measurements in FACE (free air CO(2) enrichment) field-based experiments suggest that elevated [CO(2)] has little or no effect on the rate of development other than small advances in development associated with a warmer canopy temperature. The rate of development (inverse of the duration from sowing to flowering) is largely determined by responses to temperature and photoperiod, and the effects of temperature and of photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures can be quantified and predicted. However, responses to temperature, and more particularly photoperiod, at supraoptimal temperature are not well understood. Analysis of a comprehensive data set of time to tassel initiation in maize (Zea mays) with a wide range of photoperiods above and below the optimum suggests that photoperiod modulates the negative effects of temperature above the optimum. A simulation analysis of the effects of prescribed increases in temperature (0-6 degrees C in +1 degree C steps) and temperature variability (0% and +50%) on days to tassel initiation showed that tassel initiation occurs later, and variability was increased, as the temperature exceeds the optimum in models both with and without photoperiod sensitivity. However, the inclusion of photoperiod sensitivity above the optimum temperature resulted in a higher apparent optimum temperature and less variability in the time of tassel initiation. Given the importance of changes in plant development for crop yield under climate change, the effects of photoperiod and temperature on development rates above the optimum temperature clearly merit further research, and some of the knowledge gaps are identified herein. [24] Diskin E, Proctor H, Jebb M, et al.2012.

The phenology of rubus fruticosus in Ireland: Herbarium specimens provide evidence for the response of phenophases to temperature, with implications for climate warming

[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 56(6): 1103-1111.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-012-0524-z URL PMID: 22382508 [本文引用: 1] 摘要

AbstractTo date, phenological research has provided evidence that climate warming is impacting both animals and plants, evidenced by the altered timing of phenophases. Much of the evidence supporting these findings has been provided by analysis of historic records and present-day fieldwork; herbaria have been identified recently as an alternative source of phenological data. Here, we used Rubus specimens to evaluate herbaria as potential sources of phenological data for use in climate change research and to develop the methodology for using herbaria specimens in phenological studies. Data relevant to phenology (collection date) were recorded from the information cards of over 600 herbarium specimens at Ireland’s National Herbarium in Dublin. Each specimen was assigned a score (0–5) corresponding to its phenophase. Temperature data for the study period (1852 – 2007) were obtained from the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU); relationships between temperature and the dates of first flower, full flower, first fruit and full fruit were assessed using weighted linear regression. Of the five species of Rubus examined in this study, specimens of only one (R. fruticosus) were sufficiently abundant to yield statistically significant relationships with temperature. The results revealed a trend towards earlier dates of first flower, full flower and first fruit phenophases with increasing temperature. Through its multi-phenophase approach, this research serves to extend the most recent work—which validated the use of herbaria through use of a single phenophase—to confirm herbarium-based research as a robust methodology for use in future phenological studies. [25] Eyshi Rezaei E, Siebert S, Ewert F.2015.

Intensity of heat stress in winter wheat-phenology compensates for the adverse effect of global warming

[J]. Environmental Research Letters , 10(2). doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024012.

URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

Higher temperatures during the growing season are likely to reduce crop yields with implications for crop production and food security. The negative impact of heat stress has also been predicted to increase even further for cereals such as wheat under climate change. Previous empirical modeling studies have focused on the magnitude and frequency of extreme events during the growth period but did not consider the effect of higher temperature on crop phenology. Based on an extensive set of climate and phenology observations for Germany and period 1951 2009, interpolated to 1 1 km resolution and provided as supplementary data to this article (available at stacks.iop.org/ERL/10/024012/mmedia), we demonstrate a strong relationship between the mean temperature in spring and the day of heading (DOH) of winter wheat. We show that the cooling effect due to the 14 days earlier DOH almost fully compensates for the adverse effect of global warming on frequency and magnitude of crop heat stress. Earlier heading caused by the warmer spring period can prevent exposure to extreme heat events around anthesis, which is the most sensitive growth stage to heat stress. Consequently, the intensity of heat stress around anthesis in winter crops cultivated in Germany may not increase under climate change even if the number and duration of extreme heat waves increase. However, this does not mean that global warning would not harm crop production because of other impacts, e.g. shortening of the grain filling period. Based on the trends for the last 34 years in Germany, heat stress (stress thermal time) around anthesis would be 59% higher in year 2009 if the effect of high temperatures on accelerating wheat phenology were ignored. We conclude that climate impact assessments need to consider both the effect of high temperature on grain set at anthesis but also on crop phenology. [26] Fang W, Chen J, Shi P, et al.2005.

Variability of the phenological stages of winter wheat in the North China Plain with NOAA/AVHRR NDVI data (1982-2000)

[C]// Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 2005. IGARSS '05. Proceedings. IEEE Xplore: 3124-3127.

[本文引用: 2]

[27] Gao L, Jin Z, Huang Y, et al.1992.

Rice clock model: A computer model to simulate rice development

[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 60(S1-S2): 1-16.

https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1923(92)90071-B URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

This paper describes a simulation model of rice development. It consists of four submodels dealing with: (1) phenology; (2) leaf age; (3) total leaf number; (4) organ development. After combining the first two submodels, the submodel of (3) was obtained, which could be used to predict the total number of leaves on the main culm. With the synchronous relationship between development of leaves and organs, the morphological appearance and organ development for a given rice variety can be predicted. Model parameters were determined using rice data from 15 locations in the Yangtze River Valley, China for 1985–1986. The model was validated with a separate data set collected from Jiangsu province during 1988–1989. The average error in heading date for that test was 3.5 days with a correlation coefficient of 0.88. [28] Grigorieva E A, Matzarakis A, Freitas C R D.2010.

Analysis of growing degree-days as a climate impact indicator in a region with extreme annual air temperature amplitude

[J]. Climate Research, 42(2): 143-154.

https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00888 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

Abstract We used the concept of growing degree-days (GDD) as a measure of the agricultural potential of climate on a regional scale in the southern part of the Russian Far East, the climate of which is characterized by thermal extremes. Daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were used to calculate GDD at 17 locations using threshold base air temperatures of 0, 5, 10 and 15?C, with a high-temperature threshold cut-off of 30?C. GDD increased from north to south in the study area, but the mean GDD varied considerably from one location to another. Marginal thermal conditions were observed in the north, both in the elevated areas and in the coastal regions. There was a high correlation between GDD and mean monthly temperature for the growing season from May to September (T59), such that the latter can be used as a proxy for GDD, which has implications for agricultural management. GDD and T59 had an upward trend over the 1966-2005 period for the study region as a whole. The most significant upward trend was observed [29] He L, Asseng S, Zhao G, et al.2015.

Impacts of recent climate warming, cultivar changes, and crop management on winter wheat phenology across the Loess Plateau of China

[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 200(4): 135-143.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.09.011 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要

Crop yields are influenced by growing season length, which are determined by temperature and agronomic management, such as sowing date and changes in cultivars. It is essential to quantify the interaction between climate change and crop management on crop phenology to understand the adaptation of farming systems to climate change. Historical changes in winter wheat phenology have been observed across the Loess Plateau of China during 1981–2009. The observed dates of sowing, emergence, and beginning of winter dormancy were delayed by an average of 1.2, 1.3, and 1.2daysdecade611, respectively. Conversely, the dates of green-up (regrowth after winter dormancy), anthesis, and maturity advanced by an average of 2.0, 3.7, and 3.1daysdecade611, respectively. Additionally, the growth duration (sowing to maturity), overwintering period, and vegetative phase (sowing to anthesis) shortened by an average of 4.3, 3.1, and 5.0daysdecade611, respectively. The changes in phenological stages and phases were significantly negatively correlated with a temperature increase during this time. Differently to most other phase changes, the reproductive phase (anthesis to maturity) prolonged by an average of 0.7daydecade611, but this was spatially variable. The prolonged reproductive phase was due to advanced anthesis dates and consequently caused the reproductive phase to occur during a cooler part of the season, which led to an extended reproductive phase. Applying a crop simulation model using a field-tested standard cultivar across locations and years indicated that the simulated phenological stages have accelerated with the warming trend more than the observed phenological stages. This indicated that, over the last decades, later sowing dates and the introduction of new cultivars with longer thermal time requirement have compensated for some of the increased temperature-induced changes in wheat phenology. [30] Hu Q, Weiss A, Song F, et al.2005.

Earlier winter wheat heading dates and warmer spring in the U.S. Great Plains

[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 135(1): 284-290.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.01.001 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

Phenological change of plants is an indication of local and regional climate change, independent of the instrumentation records and associated bias/error. Although some phenological changes have been identified for native and perennial species and used to infer climate change in various regions of the world, little has been known for changes in agricultural plants/crops. In this study, heading or flowering dates of winter wheat cultivar Kharkof are examined from 70 years of data at six locations in the U.S. Great Plains. Results indicate a consistent trend of earlier heading or flowering dates across all sites, but rates of the trend differ (from 0.8 to 1.8 days per 10-year). Because the heading or flowering date is governed primarily by temperatures, the earlier heading or flowering dates indicate warming temperatures in the spring. Further examinations reveal increase in spring daily minimum temperatures. Findings of this study add a diverse species to the plant community for detecting the “fingerprint” of regional and global climate change. [31] Hu X, Huang Y, Sun W, et al.2017.

Shifts in cultivar and planting date have regulated rice growth duration under climate warming in China since the early 1980s

[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 247: 34-41.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.07.014 URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要

Climate warming accelerates crop development and shortens growth duration. The adoption of new cultivars and changes in planting date may either retard or amplify this acceleration. However, the extent to which the cultivar and planting date shifts have impacted rice growth duration under climate warming remains largely unknown. Using an up-to-date data series from 82 agro-meteorological stations in China where rice phenology was observed from 1981 to 2012, we quantified the impacts of climate warming, cultivar and planting date shifts on rice growth duration based on a degree-days calculation. The results indicate that climate warming shortened the growth duration length (GDL) between emergence and maturity at rates of 4.202±020.7 (mean02±02SE), 1.802±020.3 and 3.902±020.5days 10-yr 611 for single, early and late rice. GDL shortening was more pronounced in the vegetative phase than in the reproductive phase for single and early rice, but it was opposite for late rice system. Cultivar shifts prolonged the GDL at rates of 6.102±021.0 and 1.702±020.6days 10-yr 611 for single and early rice but induced GDL shortening of 4.102±021.6days 10-yr 611 for late rice. The effect of planting date shifts (advanced or delayed) on GDL change was variable and depended on the rice cropping system. On average, climate warming accelerated crop development, with a relative contribution to GDL changes of 6140% in single rice, 6145% in early rice, and 6135% in late rice. Cultivar shifts compensated for the GDL shortening induced by climate warming in single and early rice with the relative contribution of 58% and 44%, respectively, but accelerated crop development in late rice with a contribution of 6137%. Nevertheless, the planting date at two-thirds of the late rice stations was significantly delayed, which retarded the acceleration by 29% in terms of GDL changes. [32] Hu Z, Liu Y, Huang L, et al.2015.

Premature heading and yield losses caused by prolonged seedling age in double cropping rice

[J]. Field Crops Research, 183: 147-155.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2015.08.002 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要

Increasing the frequency of harvests through multiple cropping is a promising way to increase global food production. In double cropping rice, prolonged seedling age leads to yield losses; however, the underlying mechanisms that cause yield reduction are poorly understood. In this study, field experiments were conducted in the early and late growing seasons of 2013 and 2014 in Zhangbang village, Wuxue county, Hubei province, China. Two seedling age treatments (control and prolonged) were studied in a randomized complete block design with four replications. Compared to the control seedling age treatment of 30–35 days, grain yield was reduced in the prolonged seedling age treatment of 40–46 days by 17.9% in the early growing season of 2013 and 2014, and 18.2% in the late growing season of 2014. Yield loss resulted from reduced biomass and grain weight. Premature heading was observed in the prolonged seedling age treatment in both growing seasons; main stem heading occurred 8–13 days earlier and tiller stem heading about 8 days later compared to the control seedling age treatment. Full heading was completed within 12 days in the control seedling age treatment, while in the prolonged seedling age treatment within 27–33 days. In the prolonged seedling age treatment, yield loss resulted from the reduced grain yield of both stem types, one bearing premature-heading panicles and the other bearing normal-heading panicles. Single-stem measurements, including biomass, grain weight, plant height, leaf area, length and width of flag leaf, and degeneration of panicle branches and spikelets, significantly changed in both stem types. Overall, it is important to prevent prolonged seedling age in double cropping rice mainly through the reasonable arrangement of crops in a rotation system. [33] Huang J, Feng J.2015.

Effects of climate change on phenological trends and seed cotton yields in oasis of arid regions

[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 59(7): 877-888.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-014-0904-7 URL PMID: 25240389 [本文引用: 1] 摘要

Understanding the effects of climatic change on phenological phases of cotton (L.) in oasis of arid regions may help optimize management schemes to increase productivity. This study assessed the impacts of climatic changes on the phenological phases and productivity of spring cotton. The results showed that climatic warming led the dates of sowing seed, seeding emergence, three-leaf, five-leaf, budding, anthesis, full bloom, cleft boll, boll-opening, boll-opening filling, and stop-growing become earlier by 24.42, 26.19, 24.75, 23.28, 22.62, 15.75, 14.58, 5.37, 2.85, 8.04, and 2.1602days during the period of 1981–2010, respectively. The growth period lengths from sowing seed to seeding emergence and from boll-opening to boll-opening filling were shortened by 1.76 and 5.1902days, respectively. The other growth period lengths were prolonged by 2–9.7102days. The whole growth period length was prolonged by 22.2602days. The stop-growing date was delayed by 2.49–3.4602days for every 102°C rise in minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures; however, other development dates emerged earlier by 2.17–4.7602days. Rising temperatures during the stage from seeding emergence to three-leaf reduced seed cotton yields. However, rising temperatures increased seed cotton yields in the two stages from anthesis to cleft boll and from boll-opening filling to the stop-growing. Increasing accumulated temperatures (AT) had different impacts on different development stages. During the vegetative phase, rising AT led to reduced seed cotton yields, but rising AT during reproductive stage increased seed cotton yields. In conclusion, climatic warming helpfully obtained more seed cotton yields in oasis of arid regions in northwest China. Changing the sowing date is another way to enhance yields for climate change in the future. [34] IPCC.2013. Climate change 2013: The physical science basis [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

[本文引用: 1]

[35] Li K N, Yang X, Tian H, et al.2016.

Effects of changing climate and cultivar on the phenology and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain

[J]. International Journal of Biometeorology, 60(1): 21-32.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1002-1 URL PMID: 25962358 [本文引用: 2] 摘要

Understanding how changing climate and cultivars influence crop phenology and potential yield is essential for crop adaptation to future climate change. In this study, crop and daily weather data collected from six sites across the North China Plain were used to drive a crop model to analyze the impacts of climate change and cultivar development on the phenology and production of winter wheat from 1981 to 2005. Results showed that both the growth period (GP) and the vegetative growth period (VGP) decreased during the study period, whereas changes in the reproductive growth period (RGP) either increased slightly or had no significant trend. Although new cultivars could prolong the winter wheat phenology (0.3653.802days per decade for GP), climate warming impacts were more significant and mainly accounted for the changes. The harvest index and kernel number per stem weight have significantly increased. Model simulation indicated that the yield of winter wheat exhibited increases (5.06519.402%) if new cultivars were applied. Climate change demonstrated a negative effect on winter wheat yield as suggested by the simulation driven by climate data only (613.3 to 6154.802kg02ha 611 02year 611 , except for Lushi). Results of this study also indicated that winter wheat cultivar development can compensate for the negative effects of future climatic change. [36] Li Z G, Yang P, Tang H J, et al.2014.

Response of maize phenology to climate warming in Northeast China between 1990 and 2012

[J]. Regional Environmental Change, 14(1): 39-48.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0503-x URL [本文引用: 3] 摘要

Investigating the temporal changes in crop phenology is essential for understanding crop response and adaption to climate change. Using observed climatic and maize phenological data from 53 agricultural meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1990 and 2012, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in maize phenology, temperatures and their correlations in major maize-growing areas (latitudes 39–48°N) of Northeast China. During the investigation period, seedling and heading dates advanced significantly at 22 out of the 53 stations; maturity dates delayed significantly at 23 stations, and the growing period (GP, from seedling to maturity), the vegetative growing period (VGP, from seedling to heading) and the reproductive growing period (RGP, from heading to maturity) increased significantly at 3002% of the investigated stations. GP length was positively correlated with T mean at 40 stations and significantly at 10 stations ( P 02

【本文地址】

公司简介

联系我们