Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change,Nature Communications

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

中文翻译：

分层是湖泊生命周期中最重要的物理特征之一。众所周知，分层开始和破裂（物候学）时间上的细微变化具有重大的生态影响，主要是通过确定生物体的光，营养素，碳和氧的可用性。尽管其具有生态重要性，但分层物候学的历史和未来全球变化尚不清楚。在这里，我们使用了湖泊气候模型集合和长期的观测数据，调查了北半球从1901年到2099年的湖泊分层物候变化。在高温室气体排放的情况下，分层将开始22.0±7.0天之前，到本世纪末，结束时间为11.3±4.7天。这很可能是33.3±11。分层延长7天将加速湖泊脱氧，进而影响营养物矿化和湖泊沉积物中磷的释放。生命周期事件的进一步错位，以及湖泊生态系统可能发生的不可逆变化，也是可能的。